BeN

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

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Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$4K net profit from $185K of volume, with a 52.3% win rate across 199 trades, a 50% skill score, and a 2.0% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill: 50%
Confidence: 53.6%

Share on X

Win Rate

52.3%

Trades

199

Net P&L

+$3.8K

Total Vol

$184.9K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 199 resolved trades (Beta(68, 67))

Cumulative Realized P&L

199 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 199 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -30.3%

Yes37W / 63L

37.0%

100 resolved positions

No66W / 32L

67.3%

98 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (199)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 199

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?	BUYYES	13.0	$6.50	0.500	−$3	Jul 7
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUYNO	12.5	$6.35	0.510	+$6	Jul 6
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42.5B by June 30?	BUYNO	20.0	$13.40	0.670	+$7	Jul 1
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUYNO	1,000.0	$630.00	0.630	+$260	Jul 1
Will Ex-Prince Andrew Testify to Congress about Epstein?	BUYNO	50.0	$44.50	0.890	+$6	Jul 1
Will Waymo launch in London by June 30 2026?	BUYNO	30.0	$22.50	0.750	+$8	Jul 1
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?	BUYNO	2,975.5	$2,844.37	0.956	+$131	Jul 1
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond?	BUYNO	1,301.8	$1,236.71	0.950	+$91	Jul 1
Will Lord Peter Mandelson Testify to Congress about Epstein?	BUYNO	124.8	$84.86	0.680	+$40	Jul 1
No one announced as next James Bond?	BUYYES	843.5	$27.21	0.032	+$816	Jul 1

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?

BUYYES−$3

Shares13.0

Total Traded$6.50

Avg Price0.500

ClosedJul 7

Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

BUYNO+$6

Shares12.5

Total Traded$6.35

Avg Price0.510

ClosedJul 6

Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42.5B by June 30?

BUYNO+$7

Shares20.0

Total Traded$13.40

Avg Price0.670

ClosedJul 1

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

BUYNO+$260

Shares1,000.0

Total Traded$630.00

Avg Price0.630

ClosedJul 1

Will Ex-Prince Andrew Testify to Congress about Epstein?

BUYNO+$6

Shares50.0

Total Traded$44.50

Avg Price0.890

ClosedJul 1

Will Waymo launch in London by June 30 2026?

BUYNO+$8

Shares30.0

Total Traded$22.50

Avg Price0.750

ClosedJul 1

Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?

BUYNO+$131

Shares2,975.5

Total Traded$2,844.37

Avg Price0.956

ClosedJul 1

Tom Holland announced as next James Bond?

BUYNO+$91

Shares1,301.8

Total Traded$1,236.71

Avg Price0.950

ClosedJul 1

Will Lord Peter Mandelson Testify to Congress about Epstein?

BUYNO+$40

Shares124.8

Total Traded$84.86

Avg Price0.680

ClosedJul 1

No one announced as next James Bond?

BUYYES+$816

Shares843.5

Total Traded$27.21

Avg Price0.032

ClosedJul 1

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

+$2,530

Win / Loss

11W / 9L

Win Rate

55.0%

Avg Return

+126.5%

1–5 of 20

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?Jul 7, 2026 @ 50.0¢BUYYES200.050.0¢$100$100-100.0%

2Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Jul 6, 2026 @ 51.0¢BUYNO196.151.0¢$100+$96+96.1%

3Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42.5B by June 30?Jul 1, 2026 @ 67.0¢BUYNO149.367.0¢$100+$49+49.3%

4Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Jul 1, 2026 @ 63.0¢BUYNO158.763.0¢$100+$59+58.7%

5Will Ex-Prince Andrew Testify to Congress about Epstein?Jul 1, 2026 @ 89.0¢BUYNO112.489.0¢$100+$12+12.4%

#1Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?

Jul 7, 2026 @ 50.0¢

$100

BUYYES-100.0%

#2Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Jul 6, 2026 @ 51.0¢

+$96

BUYNO+96.1%

#3Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42.5B by June 30?

Jul 1, 2026 @ 67.0¢

+$49

BUYNO+49.3%

#4Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Jul 1, 2026 @ 63.0¢

+$59

BUYNO+58.7%

#5Will Ex-Prince Andrew Testify to Congress about Epstein?

Jul 1, 2026 @ 89.0¢

+$12

BUYNO+12.4%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.