Skip to main content
LUCKORSKILL
Back to Leaderboard

Peanutbettor

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:culturetime-2025-person-of-the-year
Skilled

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$142K net profit from $541K of volume, with a 67.8% win rate across 118 trades, a 62% skill score, and a 26.3% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
62%
Confidence
96.3%
Share on X

Win Rate

67.8%

Trades

118

Net P&L

+$142.2K

Total Vol

$541.2K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 118 resolved trades (Beta(31, 19))

Cumulative Realized P&L

118 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 118 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -32.7%

Yes16W / 19L
45.7%

35 resolved positions

No58W / 16L
78.4%

74 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (118)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 118

Washington Commanders agree to name stadium after Trump?
BUYNO+$2
Shares39.0
Total Traded$36.66
Avg Price0.940
ClosedJul 1
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?
BUYYES−$281
Shares336.7
Total Traded$281.15
Avg Price0.835
ClosedJun 30
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?
BUYYES+$4.2K
Shares5,798.0
Total Traded$1,139.51
Avg Price0.197
ClosedMay 28
Will Evan Mobley win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?
BUYNO+$35
Shares2,020.8
Total Traded$1,979.99
Avg Price0.980
ClosedMay 28
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?
BUYNO−$157
Shares1,558.0
Total Traded$1,184.06
Avg Price0.760
ClosedMar 27
Will Taylor Swift perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
BUYYES+$857
Shares3,985.6
Total Traded$67.76
Avg Price0.017
ClosedMar 27
Will Alexandre Sarr lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?
BUYYES−$17
Shares740.1
Total Traded$17.57
Avg Price0.024
ClosedMar 27
Will Green Day perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
BUYNO+$5
Shares171.0
Total Traded$165.87
Avg Price0.970
ClosedFeb 10
Will Ed Sheeran perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
BUYNO+$27
Shares745.0
Total Traded$718.39
Avg Price0.964
ClosedFeb 10
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?
BUYYES+$18
Shares205.7
Total Traded$187.21
Avg Price0.910
ClosedFeb 10

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$5,848

Win / Loss

16W / 4L

Win Rate

80.0%

Avg Return

+292.4%

1–5 of 20

#1Washington Commanders agree to name stadium after Trump?
Jul 1, 2026 @ 94.0¢
+$6
BUYNO+6.4%
#2Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?
Jun 30, 2026 @ 83.5¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?
May 28, 2026 @ 19.7¢
+$409
BUYYES+408.8%
#4Will Evan Mobley win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?
May 28, 2026 @ 98.0¢
+$2
BUYNO+2.1%
#5Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?
Mar 27, 2026 @ 76.0¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.