tankjack

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:fifwc-arg-egy-2026-07-07-more-markets

Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$15K net profit from $625K of volume, with a 42.9% win rate across 7 trades, a 41% skill score, and a 2.4% return on volume.

Only 7 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill: 41%
Confidence: 22.7%

Share on X

Win Rate

42.9%

Trades

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$15.2K

Total Vol

$624.7K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 7 resolved trades (Beta(7, 10))

Cumulative Realized P&L

7 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 7 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Yes2W / 2L

50.0%

4 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (7)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–7 of 7

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	BUYYES	350,877.2	$199,999.65	0.570	−$200.0K	Jul 12
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	BUYYES	127,892.1	$69,999.84	0.547	+$57.9K	Jul 11
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance	BUYNORWAY	156,250.0	$50,000.00	0.320	−$50.0K	Jul 11
Will France win on 2026-07-09?	BUYYES	80,971.7	$49,999.92	0.617	+$31.0K	Jul 9
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance	BUYCOLOMBIA	9,259.3	$4,999.99	0.540	−$5.0K	Jul 7
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance	BUYARGENTINA	461,707.8	$244,725.90	0.530	+$186.3K	Jul 7
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Egypt?	BUYYES	21,602.3	$4,999.99	0.231	−$5.0K	Jul 7

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?

BUYYES−$200.0K

Shares350,877.2

Total Traded$199,999.65

Avg Price0.570

ClosedJul 12

Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?

BUYYES+$57.9K

Shares127,892.1

Total Traded$69,999.84

Avg Price0.547

ClosedJul 11

Norway vs. England: Team to Advance

BUYNORWAY−$50.0K

Shares156,250.0

Total Traded$50,000.00

Avg Price0.320

ClosedJul 11

Will France win on 2026-07-09?

BUYYES+$31.0K

Shares80,971.7

Total Traded$49,999.92

Avg Price0.617

ClosedJul 9

Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance

BUYCOLOMBIA−$5.0K

Shares9,259.3

Total Traded$4,999.99

Avg Price0.540

ClosedJul 7

Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance

BUYARGENTINA+$186.3K

Shares461,707.8

Total Traded$244,725.90

Avg Price0.530

ClosedJul 7

Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Egypt?

BUYYES−$5.0K

Shares21,602.3

Total Traded$4,999.99

Avg Price0.231

ClosedJul 7

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

$167

Win / Loss

3W / 4L

Win Rate

42.9%

Avg Return

-23.8%

1–5 of 7

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?Jul 12, 2026 @ 57.0¢BUYYES175.457.0¢$100$100-100.0%

2Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?Jul 11, 2026 @ 54.7¢BUYYES182.754.7¢$100+$83+82.7%

3Norway vs. England: Team to AdvanceJul 11, 2026 @ 32.0¢BUYNORWAY312.532.0¢$100$100-100.0%

4Will France win on 2026-07-09?Jul 9, 2026 @ 61.7¢BUYYES161.961.7¢$100+$62+61.9%

5Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to AdvanceJul 7, 2026 @ 54.0¢BUYCOLOMBIA185.254.0¢$100$100-100.0%

#1Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?

Jul 12, 2026 @ 57.0¢

$100

BUYYES-100.0%

#2Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?

Jul 11, 2026 @ 54.7¢

+$83

BUYYES+82.7%

#3Norway vs. England: Team to Advance

Jul 11, 2026 @ 32.0¢

$100

BUYNORWAY-100.0%

#4Will France win on 2026-07-09?

Jul 9, 2026 @ 61.7¢

+$62

BUYYES+61.9%

#5Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance

Jul 7, 2026 @ 54.0¢

$100

BUYCOLOMBIA-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 7 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.