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J-E-R

Last updated Jul 18, 10:15 AM

Top activity:politicsdemocratic-presidential-nominee-2028
Skilled

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$24K net profit from $148K of volume, with a 77.8% win rate across 36 trades, a 65% skill score, and a 16.3% return on volume.

The record is promising, but the sample is still developing.

Skill
65%
Confidence
96.5%
Share on X

Win Rate

77.8%

Trades

36

Medium Sample

Net P&L

+$24.1K

Total Vol

$147.7K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 36 resolved trades (Beta(24, 13))

Cumulative Realized P&L

36 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 36 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +7.9%

Yes23W / 6L
79.3%

29 resolved positions

No5W / 2L
71.4%

7 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

1–1

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
BUYNOExpires Nov 7
Shares2,700.0
Total Traded$2,619.81
Avg Price0.970
Live Price98.7¢

Resolved Trades (36)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 36

Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$134
Shares112,830.2
Total Traded$881.43
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 17
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$336
Shares102,830.2
Total Traded$803.31
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 17
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES−$22
Shares112,830.2
Total Traded$881.43
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 17
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$8
Shares150.0
Total Traded$16.65
Avg Price0.111
ClosedJul 16
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$905
Shares107,830.2
Total Traded$842.37
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 16
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$642
Shares112,830.2
Total Traded$881.43
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 15
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$24
Shares150.0
Total Traded$24.15
Avg Price0.161
ClosedJul 15
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$276
Shares112,830.2
Total Traded$881.43
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 15
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$9
Shares150.0
Total Traded$8.55
Avg Price0.057
ClosedJul 12
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$2.4K
Shares126,871.3
Total Traded$3,186.24
Avg Price0.025
ClosedJul 10

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$115,008

Win / Loss

14W / 6L

Win Rate

70.0%

Avg Return

+5750.4%

1–5 of 20

#1Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 17, 2026 @ 0.8¢
+$12,701
BUYYES+12700.8%
#2Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 17, 2026 @ 0.8¢
+$12,701
BUYYES+12700.8%
#3Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 17, 2026 @ 0.8¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 16, 2026 @ 11.1¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 16, 2026 @ 0.8¢
+$12,701
BUYYES+12700.8%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.