Skip to main content
LUCKORSKILL
Back to Leaderboard

J-E-R

Last updated Jul 18, 10:15 AM

Top activity:politicsdemocratic-presidential-nominee-2028
Skilled

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$24K net profit from $148K of volume, with a 77.8% win rate across 36 trades, a 65% skill score, and a 16.3% return on volume.

The record is promising, but the sample is still developing.

Skill
65%
Confidence
96.5%
Share on X

Win Rate

77.8%

Trades

36

Medium Sample

Net P&L

+$24.1K

Total Vol

$147.7K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 36 resolved trades (Beta(24, 13))

Cumulative Realized P&L

36 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 36 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +7.9%

Yes23W / 6L
79.3%

29 resolved positions

No5W / 2L
71.4%

7 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (36)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 36

Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$134
Shares112,830.2
Total Traded$881.43
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 17
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$336
Shares102,830.2
Total Traded$803.31
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 17
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES−$22
Shares112,830.2
Total Traded$881.43
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 17
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$8
Shares150.0
Total Traded$16.65
Avg Price0.111
ClosedJul 16
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$905
Shares107,830.2
Total Traded$842.37
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 16
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$642
Shares112,830.2
Total Traded$881.43
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 15
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$24
Shares150.0
Total Traded$24.15
Avg Price0.161
ClosedJul 15
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$276
Shares112,830.2
Total Traded$881.43
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 15
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$9
Shares150.0
Total Traded$8.55
Avg Price0.057
ClosedJul 12
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$2.4K
Shares126,871.3
Total Traded$3,186.24
Avg Price0.025
ClosedJul 10

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$115,008

Win / Loss

14W / 6L

Win Rate

70.0%

Avg Return

+5750.4%

1–5 of 20

#1Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 17, 2026 @ 0.8¢
+$12,701
BUYYES+12700.8%
#2Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 17, 2026 @ 0.8¢
+$12,701
BUYYES+12700.8%
#3Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 17, 2026 @ 0.8¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 16, 2026 @ 11.1¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 16, 2026 @ 0.8¢
+$12,701
BUYYES+12700.8%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.