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anurag

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:politicsfifwc-fra-mar-2026-07-09-more-markets
Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$114K net loss from $602K of volume, with a 17.9% win rate across 179 trades, a 18% skill score, and a -18.9% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
18%
Confidence
0%
Share on X

Win Rate

17.9%

Trades

179

Net P&L

−$113.9K

Total Vol

$601.8K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 179 resolved trades (Beta(29, 133))

Cumulative Realized P&L

179 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 179 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +14.5%

Yes8W / 47L
14.5%

55 resolved positions

No0W / 2L
0.0%

2 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (179)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 179

Lionel Messi: 3+ goals
BUYYES−$49
Shares1,405.2
Total Traded$49.18
Avg Price0.035
ClosedJul 12
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5
BUYOVER−$4.6K
Shares49,999.9
Total Traded$4,624.99
Avg Price0.092
ClosedJul 12
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5
BUYOVER−$5.0K
Shares25,000.0
Total Traded$5,000.00
Avg Price0.200
ClosedJul 12
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
BUYNORWAY−$8.5K
Shares25,000.0
Total Traded$8,500.00
Avg Price0.340
ClosedJul 11
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Morocco?
BUYYES−$2.0K
Shares25,000.0
Total Traded$2,000.00
Avg Price0.080
ClosedJul 9
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance
BUYMOROCCO−$50.9K
Shares799,999.5
Total Traded$50,941.57
Avg Price0.064
ClosedJul 9
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Morocco?
BUYYES−$2.1K
Shares99,999.6
Total Traded$2,099.99
Avg Price0.021
ClosedJul 9
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Morocco?
BUYYES−$1.8K
Shares30,000.0
Total Traded$1,800.00
Avg Price0.060
ClosedJul 9
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Morocco?
BUYYES−$2.0K
Shares49,999.9
Total Traded$2,050.00
Avg Price0.041
ClosedJul 9
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Colombia?
BUYYES+$18.3K
Shares20,833.3
Total Traded$2,499.98
Avg Price0.120
ClosedJul 7

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$1,505

Win / Loss

5W / 15L

Win Rate

25.0%

Avg Return

+75.3%

1–5 of 20

#1Lionel Messi: 3+ goals
Jul 12, 2026 @ 3.5¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5
Jul 12, 2026 @ 9.2¢
$100
BUYOVER-100.0%
#3Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5
Jul 12, 2026 @ 20.0¢
$100
BUYOVER-100.0%
#4Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
Jul 11, 2026 @ 34.0¢
$100
BUYNORWAY-100.0%
#5Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Morocco?
Jul 9, 2026 @ 8.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.