neutralwave23

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:crypto btc-updown-5m-1783901100

Skilled

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$500 net profit from $3K of volume, with a 70.7% win rate across 198 trades, a 69% skill score, and a 17.3% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill: 69%
Confidence: >99.9%

Share on X

Win Rate

70.7%

Trades

198

Net P&L

+$500

Total Vol

$2.9K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 198 resolved trades (Beta(144, 64))

Cumulative Realized P&L

Most activity concentrated recently — trend may not reflect long-term performance.

202 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 202 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -60.0%

Yes2W / 3L

40.0%

5 resolved positions

No2W / 0L

100.0%

2 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (202)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 202

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
BNB Up or Down - July 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	BUYUP	12.9	$4.53	0.350	+$8	Jul 13
XRP Up or Down - July 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	BUYDOWN	9.2	$4.58	0.500	−$2	Jul 13
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	BUYUP	51.4	$17.25	0.335	−$12	Jul 13
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUYUP	18.0	$9.16	0.510	+$5	Jul 13
BNB Up or Down - July 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	BUYDOWN	8.5	$4.59	0.540	+$3	Jul 13
BNB Up or Down - July 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUYUP	4.8	$4.72	0.990	+$0	Jul 13
Solana Up or Down - July 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUYUP	11.0	$9.40	0.854	+$2	Jul 13
Ethereum Up or Down - July 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	BUYUP	4.8	$4.73	0.990	+$0	Jul 13
Solana Up or Down - July 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUYDOWN	13.6	$9.28	0.680	+$4	Jul 13
Ethereum Up or Down - July 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	BUYUP	9.5	$9.46	0.998	+$0	Jul 13

BNB Up or Down - July 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET

BUYUP+$8

Shares12.9

Total Traded$4.53

Avg Price0.350

ClosedJul 13

XRP Up or Down - July 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET

BUYDOWN−$2

Shares9.2

Total Traded$4.58

Avg Price0.500

ClosedJul 13

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET

BUYUP−$12

Shares51.4

Total Traded$17.25

Avg Price0.335

ClosedJul 13

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET

BUYUP+$5

Shares18.0

Total Traded$9.16

Avg Price0.510

ClosedJul 13

BNB Up or Down - July 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET

BUYDOWN+$3

Shares8.5

Total Traded$4.59

Avg Price0.540

ClosedJul 13

BNB Up or Down - July 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET

BUYUP+$0

Shares4.8

Total Traded$4.72

Avg Price0.990

ClosedJul 13

Solana Up or Down - July 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET

BUYUP+$2

Shares11.0

Total Traded$9.40

Avg Price0.854

ClosedJul 13

Ethereum Up or Down - July 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET

BUYUP+$0

Shares4.8

Total Traded$4.73

Avg Price0.990

ClosedJul 13

Solana Up or Down - July 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET

BUYDOWN+$4

Shares13.6

Total Traded$9.28

Avg Price0.680

ClosedJul 13

Ethereum Up or Down - July 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET

BUYUP+$0

Shares9.5

Total Traded$9.46

Avg Price0.998

ClosedJul 13

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

+$396

Win / Loss

16W / 4L

Win Rate

80.0%

Avg Return

+19.8%

1–5 of 20

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1BNB Up or Down - July 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ETJul 13, 2026 @ 35.0¢BUYUP285.735.0¢$100+$186+185.7%

2XRP Up or Down - July 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ETJul 13, 2026 @ 50.0¢BUYDOWN200.050.0¢$100$100-100.0%

3Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ETJul 13, 2026 @ 33.5¢BUYUP298.233.5¢$100$100-100.0%

4Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ETJul 13, 2026 @ 51.0¢BUYUP196.151.0¢$100+$96+96.1%

5BNB Up or Down - July 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ETJul 13, 2026 @ 54.0¢BUYDOWN185.254.0¢$100+$85+85.2%

#1BNB Up or Down - July 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET

Jul 13, 2026 @ 35.0¢

+$186

BUYUP+185.7%

#2XRP Up or Down - July 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET

Jul 13, 2026 @ 50.0¢

$100

BUYDOWN-100.0%

#3Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET

Jul 13, 2026 @ 33.5¢

$100

BUYUP-100.0%

#4Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET

Jul 13, 2026 @ 51.0¢

+$96

BUYUP+96.1%

#5BNB Up or Down - July 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET

Jul 13, 2026 @ 54.0¢

+$85

BUYDOWN+85.2%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.