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ramada...adam

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:fifwc-esp-bel-2026-07-10
Edge

Wallet Verdict

High-Volume Winner

$1.3M net profit from $8M of volume, with a 56.1% win rate across 66 trades, a 54% skill score, and a 16.3% return on volume.

The results are substantial; only the repeatability of the edge remains under review.

Skill
54%
Confidence
75.1%
Share on X

Win Rate

56.1%

Trades

66

Net P&L

+$1.3M

Total Vol

$8.0M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 66 resolved trades (Beta(36, 31))

Cumulative Realized P&L

66 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 66 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +35.0%

Yes3W / 1L
75.0%

4 resolved positions

No2W / 3L
40.0%

5 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (66)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 66

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
BUYNO+$453.9K
Shares787,160.7
Total Traded$333,243.68
Avg Price0.423
ClosedJul 12
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
BUYMAX HOLLOWAY+$240.4K
Shares836,555.4
Total Traded$596,194.63
Avg Price0.713
ClosedJul 12
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
BUYENGLAND+$36.6K
Shares103,009.0
Total Traded$66,440.82
Avg Price0.645
ClosedJul 12
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5
BUYUNDER+$155.7K
Shares374,590.7
Total Traded$218,934.79
Avg Price0.584
ClosedJul 12
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres
BUYTORONTO BLUE JAYS−$685
Shares54,904.1
Total Traded$25,804.94
Avg Price0.470
ClosedJul 11
Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5
BUYUNDER+$336.0K
Shares599,998.9
Total Traded$263,999.53
Avg Price0.440
ClosedJul 11
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?
BUYYES+$447.3K
Shares1,101,681.3
Total Traded$654,374.43
Avg Price0.594
ClosedJul 10
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5
BUYOVER+$142.9K
Shares310,215.2
Total Traded$167,325.44
Avg Price0.539
ClosedJul 10
Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
BUYOVER+$37.3K
Shares71,815.1
Total Traded$34,471.24
Avg Price0.480
ClosedJul 10
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
BUYOVER+$39.7K
Shares84,410.0
Total Traded$44,720.66
Avg Price0.530
ClosedJul 9

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$502

Win / Loss

13W / 7L

Win Rate

65.0%

Avg Return

+25.1%

1–5 of 20

#1Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 42.3¢
+$136
BUYNO+136.2%
#2UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
Jul 12, 2026 @ 71.3¢
+$40
BUYMAX HOLLOWAY+40.3%
#3Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
Jul 12, 2026 @ 64.5¢
+$55
BUYENGLAND+55.0%
#4Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5
Jul 12, 2026 @ 58.4¢
+$71
BUYUNDER+71.1%
#5Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres
Jul 11, 2026 @ 47.0¢
$100
BUYTORONTO BLUE JAYS-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.