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qqq89

Last updated Jul 16, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sportsnba-okc-den-2026-04-10
Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$56K net loss from $1.1M of volume, with a 32.5% win rate across 197 trades, a 33% skill score, and a -5.0% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
33%
Confidence
0%
Share on X

Win Rate

32.5%

Trades

197

Net P&L

−$55.7K

Total Vol

$1.1M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 197 resolved trades (Beta(34, 71))

Cumulative Realized P&L

197 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 197 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -26.7%

Yes2W / 28L
6.7%

30 resolved positions

No1W / 2L
33.3%

3 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (197)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 197

Argentina vs. Switzerland: Argentina O/U 1.5
BUYOVER−$1,000
Shares2,040.8
Total Traded$1,000.00
Avg Price0.490
ClosedJul 12
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
BUYMAX HOLLOWAY+$1.3K
Shares5,000.0
Total Traded$3,649.98
Avg Price0.730
ClosedJul 12
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
BUYYES−$975
Shares5,000.0
Total Traded$975.00
Avg Price0.195
ClosedJul 11
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
BUYNORWAY−$75
Shares4,999.9
Total Traded$1,774.96
Avg Price0.355
ClosedJul 11
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$499
Shares166,186.6
Total Traded$2,658.99
Avg Price0.016
ClosedJul 6
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)
BUYARGENTINA−$2.0K
Shares2,898.6
Total Traded$2,000.00
Avg Price0.690
ClosedJul 3
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)
BUYARGENTINA−$2.0K
Shares4,651.2
Total Traded$2,000.00
Avg Price0.430
ClosedJul 3
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?
BUYYES−$1.5K
Shares10,000.0
Total Traded$1,475.00
Avg Price0.147
ClosedJul 2
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Team to Advance
BUYUNITED STATES+$381
Shares2,381.0
Total Traded$2,000.00
Avg Price0.840
ClosedJul 2
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?
BUYYES−$209
Shares2,096.2
Total Traded$209.11
Avg Price0.100
ClosedJul 1

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$1,085

Win / Loss

4W / 16L

Win Rate

20.0%

Avg Return

-54.3%

1–5 of 20

#1Argentina vs. Switzerland: Argentina O/U 1.5
Jul 12, 2026 @ 49.0¢
$100
BUYOVER-100.0%
#2UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
Jul 12, 2026 @ 73.0¢
+$37
BUYMAX HOLLOWAY+37.0%
#3Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 11, 2026 @ 19.5¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
Jul 11, 2026 @ 35.5¢
$100
BUYNORWAY-100.0%
#5Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 6, 2026 @ 1.6¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.