redvinny
Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM
Wallet Verdict
Wins Often, Loses Bigger
$173K net loss from $2.2M of volume, with a 67.2% win rate across 207 trades, a 66% skill score, and a -7.9% return on volume.
Frequent wins are being outweighed by entry prices, position sizing, or larger losses.
- Skill
- 66%
- Confidence
- >99.9%
Win Rate
67.2%
Trades
207
Net P&L
−$172.7K
Total Vol
$2.2M
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 207 resolved trades (Beta(133, 69))
Cumulative Realized P&L
207 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 207 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -22.2%
27 resolved positions
15 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (207)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 207
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
$196
Win / Loss
15W / 5L
Win Rate
75.0%
Avg Return
-9.8%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.