Skip to main content
LUCKORSKILL
Back to Leaderboard

uma003

Last updated Jul 14, 03:02 PM

Top activity:sportsfed-decision-in-december
Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$28K net loss from $1.9M of volume, with a 58.1% win rate across 62 trades, a 54% skill score, and a -1.5% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
54%
Confidence
71.1%
Share on X

Win Rate

58.1%

Trades

62

Net P&L

−$28.3K

Total Vol

$1.9M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 62 resolved trades (Beta(27, 23))

Cumulative Realized P&L

62 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 62 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -8.2%

Yes7W / 6L
53.8%

13 resolved positions

No18W / 11L
62.1%

29 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (62)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 62

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?
BUYNO+$31
Shares995.3
Total Traded$477.74
Avg Price0.480
ClosedJul 13
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?
BUYNO+$7
Shares219.8
Total Traded$202.23
Avg Price0.920
ClosedJul 7
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?
BUYYES−$9.2K
Shares40,000.0
Total Traded$9,200.00
Avg Price0.230
ClosedJul 6
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$4.7K
Shares63,800.0
Total Traded$58,376.98
Avg Price0.915
ClosedJul 6
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO−$2.5K
Shares11,499.9
Total Traded$8,264.41
Avg Price0.719
ClosedJul 6
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
BUYNO+$2.5K
Shares53,275.0
Total Traded$47,571.27
Avg Price0.893
ClosedJul 6
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
BUYNO+$2.4K
Shares29,569.3
Total Traded$23,920.96
Avg Price0.809
ClosedJul 3
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$105
Shares7,000.0
Total Traded$5,543.99
Avg Price0.792
ClosedJun 30
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?
BUYYES−$4.7K
Shares88,960.9
Total Traded$4,722.84
Avg Price0.053
ClosedJun 28
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?
BUYNO−$8.5K
Shares49,998.8
Total Traded$8,499.79
Avg Price0.170
ClosedJun 28

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$93

Win / Loss

10W / 10L

Win Rate

50.0%

Avg Return

-4.6%

1–5 of 20

#1Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 48.0¢
+$108
BUYNO+108.3%
#2Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?
Jul 7, 2026 @ 92.0¢
+$9
BUYNO+8.7%
#3Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?
Jul 6, 2026 @ 23.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 6, 2026 @ 91.5¢
+$9
BUYNO+9.3%
#5Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 6, 2026 @ 71.9¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.