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staticllama

Last updated Jul 14, 11:02 PM

Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$10K net loss from $74K of volume, with a 23.8% win rate across 84 trades, a 25% skill score, and a -13.2% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
25%
Confidence
0%
Share on X

Win Rate

23.8%

Trades

84

Net P&L

−$9.8K

Total Vol

$74.1K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 84 resolved trades (Beta(20, 60))

Cumulative Realized P&L

84 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 84 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -17.2%

Yes12W / 49L
19.7%

61 resolved positions

No7W / 12L
36.8%

19 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (84)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 84

BUYYES$2.0K
Shares16,160.8
Total Traded$1,999.98
Avg Price0.124
ClosedJul 9
BUYYES$1,000
Shares9,121.2
Total Traded$999.99
Avg Price0.110
ClosedJun 27
BUYYES+$1.6K
Shares2,567.7
Total Traded$1,000.00
Avg Price0.389
ClosedJun 26
BUYYES$1,000
Shares5,889.5
Total Traded$999.99
Avg Price0.170
ClosedJun 24
BUYYES$1,000
Shares8,812.9
Total Traded$1,000.00
Avg Price0.113
ClosedJun 23
BUYYES$1,000
Shares4,545.5
Total Traded$1,000.00
Avg Price0.220
ClosedJun 19
BUYYES$1,000
Shares4,347.8
Total Traded$1,000.00
Avg Price0.230
ClosedJun 19
BUYYES$1,000
Shares5,263.2
Total Traded$999.99
Avg Price0.190
ClosedJun 17
BUYYES+$587
Shares1,587.3
Total Traded$1,000.00
Avg Price0.630
ClosedJun 14
BUYYES$1,000
Shares4,347.8
Total Traded$1,000.00
Avg Price0.230
ClosedJun 13

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$6,994

Win / Loss

4W / 16L

Win Rate

20.0%

Avg Return

+349.7%

15 of 20

#1Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?
Jul 9, 2026 @ 12.4¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?
Jun 27, 2026 @ 11.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?
Jun 26, 2026 @ 38.9¢
+$157
BUYYES+156.8%
#4Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24?
Jun 24, 2026 @ 17.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?
Jun 23, 2026 @ 11.3¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.