staticllama
Last updated Jul 14, 11:02 PM
Wallet Verdict
The Market Collected
$10K net loss from $74K of volume, with a 23.8% win rate across 84 trades, a 25% skill score, and a -13.2% return on volume.
The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.
- Skill
- 25%
- Confidence
- 0%
Win Rate
23.8%
Trades
84
Net P&L
−$9.8K
Total Vol
$74.1K
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 84 resolved trades (Beta(20, 60))
Cumulative Realized P&L
84 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 84 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -17.2%
61 resolved positions
19 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (84)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 84
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
+$6,994
Win / Loss
4W / 16L
Win Rate
20.0%
Avg Return
+349.7%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.