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swededegen

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:politicsnba-okc-sas-2026-05-28
Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$8K net profit from $19K of volume, with a 61.1% win rate across 18 trades, a 52% skill score, and a 39.1% return on volume.

Only 18 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
52%
Confidence
58.3%
Share on X

Win Rate

61.1%

Trades

18

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$7.5K

Total Vol

$19.3K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 18 resolved trades (Beta(13, 12))

Cumulative Realized P&L

18 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 18 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Yes5W / 4L
55.6%

9 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (18)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 18

Will France win on 2026-07-09?
BUYYES+$3
Shares8.1
Total Traded$5.00
Avg Price0.620
ClosedJul 9
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
BUYYES+$1
Shares4.2
Total Traded$3.00
Avg Price0.720
ClosedJul 7
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?
BUYYES−$3
Shares8.3
Total Traded$3.00
Avg Price0.360
ClosedJul 7
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?
BUYYES−$4
Shares12.5
Total Traded$4.00
Avg Price0.320
ClosedJul 6
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?
BUYYES−$3
Shares12.5
Total Traded$3.00
Avg Price0.240
ClosedJul 6
Spurs vs. Knicks
BUYSPURS+$5
Shares8.7
Total Traded$4.00
Avg Price0.460
ClosedJun 9
Knicks vs. Spurs
BUYSPURS−$1.6K
Shares2,388.1
Total Traded$1,600.00
Avg Price0.670
ClosedJun 6
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes
BUYHURRICANES+$4
Shares10.2
Total Traded$6.00
Avg Price0.590
ClosedJun 5
Knicks vs. Spurs
BUYSPURS−$1.7K
Shares2,703.1
Total Traded$1,730.00
Avg Price0.640
ClosedJun 4
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
BUYYES+$1
Shares15.0
Total Traded$3.00
Avg Price0.200
ClosedJun 3

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$792

Win / Loss

11W / 7L

Win Rate

61.1%

Avg Return

+44.0%

1–5 of 18

#1Will France win on 2026-07-09?
Jul 9, 2026 @ 62.0¢
+$61
BUYYES+61.3%
#2Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
Jul 7, 2026 @ 72.0¢
+$39
BUYYES+38.9%
#3Will United States win on 2026-07-06?
Jul 7, 2026 @ 36.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?
Jul 6, 2026 @ 32.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?
Jul 6, 2026 @ 24.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 18 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.