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TheEmprah

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$28K net profit from $1.2M of volume, with a 70.2% win rate across 191 trades, a 53% skill score, and a 2.3% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
53%
Confidence
69.7%
Share on X

Win Rate

70.2%

Trades

191

Net P&L

+$27.8K

Total Vol

$1.2M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 191 resolved trades (Beta(33, 29))

Cumulative Realized P&L

191 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 191 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -18.2%

Yes41W / 29L
58.6%

70 resolved positions

No89W / 27L
76.7%

116 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (191)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 191

BUYMAX HOLLOWAY+$1.5K
Shares5,000.0
Total Traded$3,550.00
Avg Price0.710
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES+$1.3K
Shares264,998.5
Total Traded$2,670.92
Avg Price0.010
ClosedJun 30
BUYNO$5.5K
Shares9,050.2
Total Traded$5,487.40
Avg Price0.606
ClosedJun 28
BUYNO$622
Shares740.6
Total Traded$622.07
Avg Price0.840
ClosedJun 28
BUYNO$540
Shares1,200.0
Total Traded$539.99
Avg Price0.450
ClosedJun 28
BUYNO$6
Shares68.2
Total Traded$6.14
Avg Price0.090
ClosedJun 28
BUYYES$1.3K
Shares2,860.0
Total Traded$1,342.64
Avg Price0.469
ClosedJun 28
BUYNO$464
Shares662.9
Total Traded$463.51
Avg Price0.699
ClosedJun 28
BUYYES$40
Shares101.8
Total Traded$40.41
Avg Price0.397
ClosedJun 28
BUYYES+$3.0K
Shares149,825.6
Total Traded$2,400.51
Avg Price0.016
ClosedJun 28

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$20,410

Win / Loss

4W / 16L

Win Rate

20.0%

Avg Return

+1020.5%

15 of 20

#1UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
Jul 12, 2026 @ 71.0¢
+$41
BUYMAX HOLLOWAY+40.8%
#2Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jun 30, 2026 @ 1.0¢
+$9,822
BUYYES+9821.6%
#3Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?
Jun 28, 2026 @ 60.6¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#4Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9?
Jun 28, 2026 @ 84.0¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#5Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?
Jun 28, 2026 @ 45.0¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.