How.Dare.You

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:politics will-crude-oil-cl-hit-by-end-of-march

Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$814K net loss from $5.5M of volume, with a 61.6% win rate across 203 trades, a 60% skill score, and a -14.9% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill: 60%
Confidence: 99.2%

Share on X

Win Rate

61.6%

Trades

203

Net P&L

−$814.1K

Total Vol

$5.5M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 203 resolved trades (Beta(87, 58))

Cumulative Realized P&L

203 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 203 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -38.8%

Yes32W / 51L

38.6%

83 resolved positions

No92W / 27L

77.3%

119 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (203)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 203

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 30-July 6?	BUYNO	1,777.0	$977.35	0.550	+$800	Jul 7
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	BUYNO	1,067.0	$897.52	0.841	+$170	Jul 1
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	BUYNO	4,000.0	$3,532.00	0.883	+$468	Jul 1
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?	BUYNO	678.7	$661.74	0.975	+$12	Jul 1
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?	BUYNO	822.1	$704.54	0.857	+$118	Jul 1
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?	BUYNO	11,162.4	$9,931.68	0.890	+$1.2K	Jul 1
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	BUYNO	10,055.0	$9,451.69	0.940	+$603	Jul 1
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?	BUYNO	122.1	$109.87	0.900	+$12	Jul 1
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?	BUYNO	2.1	$2.01	0.967	+$0	Jul 1
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June?	BUYNO	307.1	$257.93	0.840	+$49	Jul 1

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 30-July 6?

BUYNO+$800

Shares1,777.0

Total Traded$977.35

Avg Price0.550

ClosedJul 7

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

BUYNO+$170

Shares1,067.0

Total Traded$897.52

Avg Price0.841

ClosedJul 1

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

BUYNO+$468

Shares4,000.0

Total Traded$3,532.00

Avg Price0.883

ClosedJul 1

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?

BUYNO+$12

Shares678.7

Total Traded$661.74

Avg Price0.975

ClosedJul 1

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?

BUYNO+$118

Shares822.1

Total Traded$704.54

Avg Price0.857

ClosedJul 1

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?

BUYNO+$1.2K

Shares11,162.4

Total Traded$9,931.68

Avg Price0.890

ClosedJul 1

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

BUYNO+$603

Shares10,055.0

Total Traded$9,451.69

Avg Price0.940

ClosedJul 1

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?

BUYNO+$12

Shares122.1

Total Traded$109.87

Avg Price0.900

ClosedJul 1

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?

BUYNO+$0

Shares2.1

Total Traded$2.01

Avg Price0.967

ClosedJul 1

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June?

BUYNO+$49

Shares307.1

Total Traded$257.93

Avg Price0.840

ClosedJul 1

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

+$370

Win / Loss

20W / 0L

Win Rate

100.0%

Avg Return

+18.5%

1–5 of 20

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 30-July 6?Jul 7, 2026 @ 55.0¢BUYNO181.855.0¢$100+$82+81.8%

2Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Jul 1, 2026 @ 84.1¢BUYNO118.984.1¢$100+$19+18.9%

3Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Jul 1, 2026 @ 88.3¢BUYNO113.388.3¢$100+$13+13.3%

4Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?Jul 1, 2026 @ 97.5¢BUYNO102.697.5¢$100+$3+2.6%

5Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?Jul 1, 2026 @ 85.7¢BUYNO116.785.7¢$100+$17+16.7%

#1Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 30-July 6?

Jul 7, 2026 @ 55.0¢

+$82

BUYNO+81.8%

#2Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

Jul 1, 2026 @ 84.1¢

+$19

BUYNO+18.9%

#3Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Jul 1, 2026 @ 88.3¢

+$13

BUYNO+13.3%

#4Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?

Jul 1, 2026 @ 97.5¢

+$3

BUYNO+2.6%

#5Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?

Jul 1, 2026 @ 85.7¢

+$17

BUYNO+16.7%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.