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Nk9

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:infinex-public-sale-total-commitments
Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$121K net profit from $204K of volume, with a 100.0% win rate across 7 trades, a 57% skill score, and a 59.3% return on volume.

Only 7 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
57%
Confidence
69.1%
Share on X

Win Rate

100.0%

Trades

7

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$120.7K

Total Vol

$203.5K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 7 resolved trades (Beta(8, 6))

Cumulative Realized P&L

7 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 7 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +0.0%

Yes4W / 0L
100.0%

4 resolved positions

No2W / 0L
100.0%

2 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (7)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–7 of 7

Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)
BUYBOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA+$52
Shares100.0
Total Traded$48.00
Avg Price0.480
ClosedJun 24
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
BUYYES+$60.0K
Shares138,870.9
Total Traded$78,822.73
Avg Price0.568
ClosedMay 20
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch?
BUYNO+$14.7K
Shares18,504.6
Total Traded$3,769.12
Avg Price0.204
ClosedFeb 1
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch?
BUYNO+$4.9K
Shares13,230.0
Total Traded$8,377.79
Avg Price0.633
ClosedFeb 1
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale?
BUYYES+$526
Shares13,484.3
Total Traded$12,944.39
Avg Price0.960
ClosedFeb 1
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?
BUYYES+$40.5K
Shares144,174.8
Total Traded$98,285.27
Avg Price0.682
ClosedJan 10
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?
BUYYES+$4
Shares6,798.1
Total Traded$1,290.52
Avg Price0.190
ClosedJan 9

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$1,111

Win / Loss

7W / 0L

Win Rate

100.0%

Avg Return

+158.7%

1–5 of 7

#1Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)
Jun 24, 2026 @ 48.0¢
+$108
BUYBOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA+108.3%
#2Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
May 20, 2026 @ 56.8¢
+$76
BUYYES+76.2%
#3Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Feb 1, 2026 @ 20.4¢
+$391
BUYNO+391.0%
#4Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Feb 1, 2026 @ 63.3¢
+$58
BUYNO+57.9%
#5Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale?
Feb 1, 2026 @ 96.0¢
+$4
BUYYES+4.2%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 7 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.