ttwong1
Last updated Jul 18, 10:15 AM
Wallet Verdict
The Market Collected
$12K net loss from $35K of volume, with a 21.4% win rate across 14 trades, a 29% skill score, and a -33.9% return on volume.
Only 14 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.
- Skill
- 29%
- Confidence
- 2%
Win Rate
21.4%
Trades
14
Small Sample
Net P&L
−$12.0K
Total Vol
$35.4K
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 14 resolved trades (Beta(7, 16))
Cumulative Realized P&L
14 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 14 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: +100.0%
3 resolved positions
11 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (14)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 14
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
+$7,462
Win / Loss
3W / 11L
Win Rate
21.4%
Avg Return
+533.0%
1–5 of 14
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 14 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.