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LUCKORSKILL
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0x3DFb...8185

Last updated Jul 15, 11:02 PM

Top activity:sportsfifwc-fra-esp-2026-07-14-more-markets
Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$4M net loss from $10M of volume, with a 27.4% win rate across 215 trades, a 28% skill score, and a -39.9% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
28%
Confidence
0%
Share on X

Win Rate

27.4%

Trades

215

Net P&L

−$4.0M

Total Vol

$10.0M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 215 resolved trades (Beta(61, 157))

Cumulative Realized P&L

215 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 215 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -45.2%

Yes2W / 40L
4.8%

42 resolved positions

No3W / 3L
50.0%

6 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (215)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 215

Spread: England (-1.5)
BUYENGLAND−$16.3K
Shares109,441.0
Total Traded$16,330.02
Avg Price0.149
ClosedJul 15
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Argentina?
BUYYES−$1.2K
Shares31,089.2
Total Traded$1,243.57
Avg Price0.040
ClosedJul 15
England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5
BUYOVER+$552.3K
Shares903,825.8
Total Traded$351,525.86
Avg Price0.389
ClosedJul 15
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Argentina?
BUYYES−$2.9K
Shares120,000.0
Total Traded$2,878.92
Avg Price0.024
ClosedJul 15
Will England win on 2026-07-15?
BUYYES−$136.0K
Shares377,600.6
Total Traded$136,018.55
Avg Price0.360
ClosedJul 15
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
BUYENGLAND−$140.6K
Shares261,900.4
Total Traded$140,575.33
Avg Price0.537
ClosedJul 15
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score
BUYNO+$1.6K
Shares3,333.0
Total Traded$1,722.05
Avg Price0.517
ClosedJul 14
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
BUYOVER−$482.3K
Shares947,210.6
Total Traded$482,283.66
Avg Price0.509
ClosedJul 14
Will France win on 2026-07-14?
BUYYES−$3.4K
Shares197,487.0
Total Traded$3,424.03
Avg Price0.017
ClosedJul 14
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
BUYSPAIN+$86.7K
Shares144,442.9
Total Traded$57,777.15
Avg Price0.400
ClosedJul 14

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$593

Win / Loss

10W / 10L

Win Rate

50.0%

Avg Return

+29.7%

1–5 of 20

#1Spread: England (-1.5)
Jul 15, 2026 @ 14.9¢
$100
BUYENGLAND-100.0%
#2Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Argentina?
Jul 15, 2026 @ 4.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5
Jul 15, 2026 @ 38.9¢
+$157
BUYOVER+157.1%
#4Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Argentina?
Jul 15, 2026 @ 2.4¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will England win on 2026-07-15?
Jul 15, 2026 @ 36.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.