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Martiini

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025
Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$1K net profit from $258K of volume, with a 51.2% win rate across 248 trades, a 50% skill score, and a 0.4% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
50%
Confidence
53.2%
Share on X

Win Rate

51.2%

Trades

248

Net P&L

+$1.2K

Total Vol

$258.5K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 248 resolved trades (Beta(44, 43))

Cumulative Realized P&L

248 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 248 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -100.0%

Yes0W / 2L
0.0%

2 resolved positions

No4W / 0L
100.0%

4 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (248)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 248

Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET
BUYUP+$1
Shares10.0
Total Traded$9.50
Avg Price0.950
ClosedFeb 19
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?
BUYNO+$671
Shares61,000.0
Total Traded$60,329.00
Avg Price0.989
ClosedFeb 19
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
BUYUP+$5
Shares10.0
Total Traded$4.80
Avg Price0.480
ClosedFeb 19
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
BUYUP−$50
Shares4,999.0
Total Traded$49.99
Avg Price0.010
ClosedFeb 19
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
BUYDOWN+$50
Shares4,999.0
Total Traded$4,949.01
Avg Price0.990
ClosedFeb 19
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET
BUYUP+$2
Shares10.0
Total Traded$7.70
Avg Price0.770
ClosedFeb 19
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
BUYUP+$15
Shares50.0
Total Traded$24.50
Avg Price0.490
ClosedJan 7
Will Elon and DOGE cut 100-150k employees in 2025?
BUYYES−$27
Shares299.0
Total Traded$26.91
Avg Price0.090
ClosedJan 6
Will Elon and DOGE cut 50-100k employees in 2025?
BUYYES−$24
Shares149.0
Total Traded$23.63
Avg Price0.159
ClosedJan 6
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?
BUYNO+$88
Shares88,000.0
Total Traded$87,912.00
Avg Price0.999
ClosedJan 4

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$875

Win / Loss

14W / 6L

Win Rate

70.0%

Avg Return

+43.8%

1–5 of 20

#1Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET
Feb 19, 2026 @ 95.0¢
+$5
BUYUP+5.3%
#2Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?
Feb 19, 2026 @ 98.9¢
+$1
BUYNO+1.1%
#3Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
Feb 19, 2026 @ 48.0¢
+$108
BUYUP+108.3%
#4Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
Feb 19, 2026 @ 1.0¢
$100
BUYUP-100.0%
#5Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
Feb 19, 2026 @ 99.0¢
+$1
BUYDOWN+1.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.