cowcat
Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM
Wallet Verdict
Wins Often, Loses Bigger
$5K net loss from $122K of volume, with a 66.3% win rate across 166 trades, a 65% skill score, and a -4.1% return on volume.
Frequent wins are being outweighed by entry prices, position sizing, or larger losses.
- Skill
- 65%
- Confidence
- >99.9%
Win Rate
66.3%
Trades
166
Net P&L
−$5.0K
Total Vol
$122.5K
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 166 resolved trades (Beta(110, 60))
Cumulative Realized P&L
166 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 166 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -26.0%
74 resolved positions
80 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (166)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 166
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
+$2,802
Win / Loss
7W / 13L
Win Rate
35.0%
Avg Return
+140.1%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.