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LUCKORSKILL
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0x37ee...7489

Last updated Jul 16, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sportsworld-cup-winner
Edge

Wallet Verdict

Big Winner, Small Sample

$3M net profit from $3.1M of volume, with a 60.0% win rate across 10 trades, a 49% skill score, and a 96.6% return on volume.

Only 10 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
49%
Confidence
48.2%
Share on X

Win Rate

60.0%

Trades

10

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$3.0M

Total Vol

$3.1M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 10 resolved trades (Beta(10, 10))

Cumulative Realized P&L

10 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 10 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -25.0%

Yes3W / 3L
50.0%

6 resolved positions

No3W / 1L
75.0%

4 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (10)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 10

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
BUYYES−$193
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$200.00
Avg Price0.200
ClosedJul 14
Will APIA Leichhardt FC win on 2026-07-14?
BUYNO−$2
Shares5.2
Total Traded$1.75
Avg Price0.340
ClosedJul 14
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
BUYYES−$195
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$200.00
Avg Price0.200
ClosedJul 14
Will Peninsula Power FC win on 2026-07-14?
BUYYES−$1
Shares3.5
Total Traded$0.53
Avg Price0.150
ClosedJul 14
Will Seattle Reign FC win on 2026-07-12?
BUYYES+$1
Shares555.6
Total Traded$555.08
Avg Price0.999
ClosedJul 13
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
BUYYES+$130
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$500.00
Avg Price0.500
ClosedJul 13
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
BUYYES+$149
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$200.00
Avg Price0.200
ClosedJul 13
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
BUYNO+$300
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$500.00
Avg Price0.500
ClosedJul 13
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$3.0M
Shares6,247,246.0
Total Traded$3,123,623.00
Avg Price0.500
ClosedJul 10
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$1.3K
Shares2,677.0
Total Traded$1,338.50
Avg Price0.500
ClosedJun 14

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$400

Win / Loss

6W / 4L

Win Rate

60.0%

Avg Return

+40.0%

1–5 of 10

#1Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 20.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Will APIA Leichhardt FC win on 2026-07-14?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 34.0¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#3Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 20.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Will Peninsula Power FC win on 2026-07-14?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 15.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will Seattle Reign FC win on 2026-07-12?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 99.9¢
+$0
BUYYES+0.1%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 10 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.