Asperatus
Last updated Jul 18, 10:15 AM
Wallet Verdict
Ahead of the Market
$730 net profit from $11K of volume, with a 86.1% win rate across 43 trades, a 75% skill score, and a 6.6% return on volume.
The record is promising, but the sample is still developing.
- Skill
- 75%
- Confidence
- >99.9%
Win Rate
86.1%
Trades
43
Medium Sample
Net P&L
+$730
Total Vol
$11.0K
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 43 resolved trades (Beta(32, 11))
Cumulative Realized P&L
43 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 43 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
43 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (43)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 43
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
+$176,225
Win / Loss
15W / 5L
Win Rate
75.0%
Avg Return
+8811.2%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.