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Asperatus

Last updated Jul 18, 10:15 AM

Skilled

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$730 net profit from $11K of volume, with a 86.1% win rate across 43 trades, a 75% skill score, and a 6.6% return on volume.

The record is promising, but the sample is still developing.

Skill
75%
Confidence
>99.9%
Share on X

Win Rate

86.1%

Trades

43

Medium Sample

Net P&L

+$730

Total Vol

$11.0K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 43 resolved trades (Beta(32, 11))

Cumulative Realized P&L

43 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 43 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Yes37W / 6L
86.0%

43 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (43)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 43

BUYYES+$116
Shares132,284.2
Total Traded$925.86
Avg Price0.007
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES+$30
Shares40,167.6
Total Traded$281.13
Avg Price0.007
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES+$53
Shares62,794.9
Total Traded$627.95
Avg Price0.010
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES+$30
Shares34,999.6
Total Traded$210.00
Avg Price0.006
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES+$2
Shares44,999.8
Total Traded$279.00
Avg Price0.006
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES+$35
Shares44,999.9
Total Traded$315.00
Avg Price0.007
ClosedJul 12
BUYYES+$0
Shares23,821.9
Total Traded$214.37
Avg Price0.009
ClosedJun 24
BUYYES+$50
Shares49,999.5
Total Traded$300.00
Avg Price0.006
ClosedJun 22
BUYYES+$18
Shares25,222.7
Total Traded$580.10
Avg Price0.023
ClosedJun 20
BUYYES+$10
Shares29,999.7
Total Traded$210.00
Avg Price0.007
ClosedJun 15

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$176,225

Win / Loss

15W / 5L

Win Rate

75.0%

Avg Return

+8811.2%

15 of 20

#1Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 0.7¢
+$14,188
BUYYES+14187.8%
#2Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 0.7¢
+$14,188
BUYYES+14187.8%
#3Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 1.0¢
+$9,900
BUYYES+9900.0%
#4Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 0.6¢
+$16,567
BUYYES+16566.7%
#5Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 0.6¢
+$16,029
BUYYES+16029.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.