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zqh929

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-march-2026
Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$529 net loss from $24K of volume, with a 40.0% win rate across 10 trades, a 39% skill score, and a -2.2% return on volume.

Only 10 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
39%
Confidence
18.3%
Share on X

Win Rate

40.0%

Trades

10

Small Sample

Net P&L

−$529

Total Vol

$23.7K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 10 resolved trades (Beta(7, 10))

Cumulative Realized P&L

10 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 10 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -66.7%

Yes0W / 2L
0.0%

2 resolved positions

No4W / 2L
66.7%

6 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (10)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 10

Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance
BUYBELGIUM−$3
Shares10.9
Total Traded$2.77
Avg Price0.255
ClosedJul 10
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?
BUYYES−$423
Shares8,601.2
Total Traded$422.92
Avg Price0.049
ClosedJun 28
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
BUYYES−$132
Shares8,892.4
Total Traded$666.93
Avg Price0.075
ClosedJun 24
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?
BUYNO+$658
Shares2,500.0
Total Traded$1,675.00
Avg Price0.670
ClosedMay 29
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?
BUYNO+$504
Shares3,000.0
Total Traded$2,400.00
Avg Price0.800
ClosedMay 29
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?
BUYNO+$32
Shares2,078.1
Total Traded$902.88
Avg Price0.434
ClosedMay 14
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?
BUY$60K−$136
Shares2,720.1
Total Traded$1,360.07
Avg Price0.500
ClosedMar 13
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March?
BUYNO−$572
Shares12,847.1
Total Traded$5,980.13
Avg Price0.465
ClosedMar 12
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?
BUYNO−$460
Shares23,011.8
Total Traded$10,175.56
Avg Price0.442
ClosedMar 11
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?
BUYNO+$0
Shares100.0
Total Traded$99.60
Avg Price0.996
ClosedFeb 4

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$395

Win / Loss

4W / 6L

Win Rate

40.0%

Avg Return

-39.5%

1–5 of 10

#1Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance
Jul 10, 2026 @ 25.5¢
$100
BUYBELGIUM-100.0%
#2Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?
Jun 28, 2026 @ 4.9¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Jun 24, 2026 @ 7.5¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?
May 29, 2026 @ 67.0¢
+$49
BUYNO+49.3%
#5Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?
May 29, 2026 @ 80.0¢
+$25
BUYNO+25.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 10 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.