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Last updated Jul 14, 02:02 PM
Wallet Verdict
Ahead of the Market
$180K net profit from $1.5M of volume, with a 51.7% win rate across 205 trades, a 51% skill score, and a 11.9% return on volume.
The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.
- Skill
- 51%
- Confidence
- 60.3%
Win Rate
51.7%
Trades
205
Net P&L
+$180.4K
Total Vol
$1.5M
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 205 resolved trades (Beta(104, 100))
Cumulative Realized P&L
205 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 205 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -12.9%
20 resolved positions
81 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (205)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 205
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
+$3,582
Win / Loss
7W / 13L
Win Rate
35.0%
Avg Return
+179.1%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.