ThisAgain

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:ufc-max1-con-2026-07-11

Edge

Wallet Verdict

High-Volume Winner

$533K net profit from $3.5M of volume, with a 41.7% win rate across 24 trades, a 43% skill score, and a 15.4% return on volume.

The results are substantial; only the repeatability of the edge remains under review.

Skill: 43%
Confidence: 20.4%

Share on X

Win Rate

41.7%

Trades

Medium Sample

Net P&L

+$532.9K

Total Vol

$3.5M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 24 resolved trades (Beta(13, 18))

Cumulative Realized P&L

24 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 24 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Yes1W / 3L

25.0%

4 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (24)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 24

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)	BUYPADDY PIMBLETT	303,465.0	$139,379.07	0.459	+$164.1K	Jul 12
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance	BUYENGLAND	13,009.0	$8,131.73	0.625	+$4.9K	Jul 12
UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims)	BUYELISHA ELLISON	79,439.2	$9,887.63	0.124	−$9.9K	Jul 12
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	BUYMAX HOLLOWAY	1,682,815.4	$1,213,372.14	0.721	+$469.4K	Jul 12
Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?	BUYYES	104,982.7	$56,690.66	0.540	+$48.3K	Jul 12
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic	BUYJANNIK SINNER	857.7	$677.58	0.790	+$180	Jul 10
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Zverev	BUYALEXANDER ZVEREV	284,241.4	$137,885.80	0.485	+$146.4K	Jul 8
Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic	BUYNOVAK DJOKOVIC	332,677.0	$145,131.33	0.436	+$106.5K	Jul 7
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)	BUYMICHAEL CHANDLER	16,342.0	$2,941.56	0.180	−$2.9K	Jun 15
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	BUYILIA TOPURIA	199,999.8	$163,999.87	0.820	−$164.0K	Jun 15

UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)

BUYPADDY PIMBLETT+$164.1K

Shares303,465.0

Total Traded$139,379.07

Avg Price0.459

ClosedJul 12

Norway vs. England: Team to Advance

BUYENGLAND+$4.9K

Shares13,009.0

Total Traded$8,131.73

Avg Price0.625

ClosedJul 12

UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims)

BUYELISHA ELLISON−$9.9K

Shares79,439.2

Total Traded$9,887.63

Avg Price0.124

ClosedJul 12

UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)

BUYMAX HOLLOWAY+$469.4K

Shares1,682,815.4

Total Traded$1,213,372.14

Avg Price0.721

ClosedJul 12

Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?

BUYYES+$48.3K

Shares104,982.7

Total Traded$56,690.66

Avg Price0.540

ClosedJul 12

Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic

BUYJANNIK SINNER+$180

Shares857.7

Total Traded$677.58

Avg Price0.790

ClosedJul 10

Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Zverev

BUYALEXANDER ZVEREV+$146.4K

Shares284,241.4

Total Traded$137,885.80

Avg Price0.485

ClosedJul 8

Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic

BUYNOVAK DJOKOVIC+$106.5K

Shares332,677.0

Total Traded$145,131.33

Avg Price0.436

ClosedJul 7

UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)

BUYMICHAEL CHANDLER−$2.9K

Shares16,342.0

Total Traded$2,941.56

Avg Price0.180

ClosedJun 15

UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

BUYILIA TOPURIA−$164.0K

Shares199,999.8

Total Traded$163,999.87

Avg Price0.820

ClosedJun 15

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

$229

Win / Loss

9W / 11L

Win Rate

45.0%

Avg Return

-11.4%

1–5 of 20

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)Jul 12, 2026 @ 45.9¢BUYPADDY PIMBLETT217.745.9¢$100+$118+117.7%

2Norway vs. England: Team to AdvanceJul 12, 2026 @ 62.5¢BUYENGLAND160.062.5¢$100+$60+60.0%

3UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims)Jul 12, 2026 @ 12.4¢BUYELISHA ELLISON803.412.4¢$100$100-100.0%

4UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)Jul 12, 2026 @ 72.1¢BUYMAX HOLLOWAY138.772.1¢$100+$39+38.7%

5Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?Jul 12, 2026 @ 54.0¢BUYYES185.254.0¢$100+$85+85.2%

#1UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)

Jul 12, 2026 @ 45.9¢

+$118

BUYPADDY PIMBLETT+117.7%

#2Norway vs. England: Team to Advance

Jul 12, 2026 @ 62.5¢

+$60

BUYENGLAND+60.0%

#3UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims)

Jul 12, 2026 @ 12.4¢

$100

BUYELISHA ELLISON-100.0%

#4UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)

Jul 12, 2026 @ 72.1¢

+$39

BUYMAX HOLLOWAY+38.7%

#5Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?

Jul 12, 2026 @ 54.0¢

+$85

BUYYES+85.2%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.