0x2c33...5465

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sports fifwc-nor-eng-2026-07-11-exact-score

Skilled

Wallet Verdict

A Lot of Motion, Not Much Progress

$173K net profit from $32.5M of volume, with a 60.2% win rate across 256 trades, a 59% skill score, and a 0.5% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill: 59%
Confidence: 99.9%

Share on X

Win Rate

60.2%

Trades

256

Net P&L

+$173.0K

Total Vol

$32.5M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 256 resolved trades (Beta(157, 107))

Cumulative Realized P&L

256 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 256 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +7.5%

Yes22W / 4L

84.6%

26 resolved positions

No54W / 16L

77.1%

70 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

1–1

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	Live Price	Expires	Action
Winston-Salem Open: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan	BUYFABIAN MAROZSAN	3,568.2	$1,498.62	0.420	44.5¢	Sep 1

Winston-Salem Open: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan

BUYFABIAN MAROZSANExpires Sep 1

Shares3,568.2

Total Traded$1,498.62

Avg Price0.420

Live Price44.5¢

Resolved Trades (256)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 256

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Lehecka (+2.5)	BUYZVEREV	27,853.6	$17,826.32	0.640	−$17.8K	Jul 13
NBA Summer League: Utah Jazz vs. LA Clippers	BUYUTAH JAZZ	246.1	$157.26	0.639	−$34	Jul 13
Bogota: Facundo Mena vs Alafia Ayeni	BUYALAFIA AYENI	111,872.4	$42,850.81	0.383	−$42.9K	Jul 13
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces	BUYINDIANA FEVER	15,945.9	$11,640.46	0.730	+$2.8K	Jul 13
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	BUYDOWN	3,755.0	$1,324.97	0.353	+$553	Jul 13
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	BUYNO	30,472.3	$16,455.05	0.540	−$1.2K	Jul 13
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings	BUYDALLAS WINGS	206,097.2	$96,970.61	0.471	+$108.3K	Jul 13
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces	BUYLAS VEGAS ACES	538,033.8	$314,381.24	0.584	−$308.0K	Jul 13
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	BUYUP	179,260.3	$55,578.76	0.310	+$121.8K	Jul 13
Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals	BUYHOUSTON ASTROS	700.8	$350.41	0.500	−$350	Jul 13

Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Lehecka (+2.5)

BUYZVEREV−$17.8K

Shares27,853.6

Total Traded$17,826.32

Avg Price0.640

ClosedJul 13

NBA Summer League: Utah Jazz vs. LA Clippers

BUYUTAH JAZZ−$34

Shares246.1

Total Traded$157.26

Avg Price0.639

ClosedJul 13

Bogota: Facundo Mena vs Alafia Ayeni

BUYALAFIA AYENI−$42.9K

Shares111,872.4

Total Traded$42,850.81

Avg Price0.383

ClosedJul 13

Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces

BUYINDIANA FEVER+$2.8K

Shares15,945.9

Total Traded$11,640.46

Avg Price0.730

ClosedJul 13

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET

BUYDOWN+$553

Shares3,755.0

Total Traded$1,324.97

Avg Price0.353

ClosedJul 13

Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals

BUYNO−$1.2K

Shares30,472.3

Total Traded$16,455.05

Avg Price0.540

ClosedJul 13

Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings

BUYDALLAS WINGS+$108.3K

Shares206,097.2

Total Traded$96,970.61

Avg Price0.471

ClosedJul 13

Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces

BUYLAS VEGAS ACES−$308.0K

Shares538,033.8

Total Traded$314,381.24

Avg Price0.584

ClosedJul 13

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET

BUYUP+$121.8K

Shares179,260.3

Total Traded$55,578.76

Avg Price0.310

ClosedJul 13

Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals

BUYHOUSTON ASTROS−$350

Shares700.8

Total Traded$350.41

Avg Price0.500

ClosedJul 13

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

+$4,799

Win / Loss

9W / 11L

Win Rate

45.0%

Avg Return

+240.0%

1–5 of 20

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Lehecka (+2.5)Jul 13, 2026 @ 64.0¢BUYZVEREV156.364.0¢$100$100-100.0%

2NBA Summer League: Utah Jazz vs. LA ClippersJul 13, 2026 @ 63.9¢BUYUTAH JAZZ156.563.9¢$100$100-100.0%

3Bogota: Facundo Mena vs Alafia AyeniJul 13, 2026 @ 38.3¢BUYALAFIA AYENI261.138.3¢$100$100-100.0%

4Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas AcesJul 13, 2026 @ 73.0¢BUYINDIANA FEVER137.073.0¢$100+$37+37.0%

5Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ETJul 13, 2026 @ 35.3¢BUYDOWN283.435.3¢$100+$183+183.4%

#1Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Lehecka (+2.5)

Jul 13, 2026 @ 64.0¢

$100

BUYZVEREV-100.0%

#2NBA Summer League: Utah Jazz vs. LA Clippers

Jul 13, 2026 @ 63.9¢

$100

BUYUTAH JAZZ-100.0%

#3Bogota: Facundo Mena vs Alafia Ayeni

Jul 13, 2026 @ 38.3¢

$100

BUYALAFIA AYENI-100.0%

#4Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces

Jul 13, 2026 @ 73.0¢

+$37

BUYINDIANA FEVER+37.0%

#5Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET

Jul 13, 2026 @ 35.3¢

+$183

BUYDOWN+183.4%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.