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0x2a5f...6c92

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

Wins Often, Loses Bigger

$8K net loss from $49K of volume, with a 69.6% win rate across 23 trades, a 60% skill score, and a -17.1% return on volume.

Frequent wins are being outweighed by entry prices, position sizing, or larger losses.

Skill
60%
Confidence
88.4%
Share on X

Win Rate

69.6%

Trades

23

Medium Sample

Net P&L

−$8.4K

Total Vol

$48.8K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 23 resolved trades (Beta(19, 13))

Cumulative Realized P&L

23 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 23 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -28.6%

Yes4W / 4L
50.0%

8 resolved positions

No11W / 3L
78.6%

14 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (23)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 23

BUYNO+$0
Shares5.0
Total Traded$4.99
Avg Price0.997
ClosedJul 10
BUYNO+$25
Shares1,800.0
Total Traded$1,774.80
Avg Price0.986
ClosedJul 10
BUYOVER+$660
Shares1,032.0
Total Traded$371.52
Avg Price0.360
ClosedJul 9
BUYYES$2.4K
Shares44,249.0
Total Traded$2,439.71
Avg Price0.055
ClosedJul 9
BUYYES$9.9K
Shares282,200.0
Total Traded$9,869.94
Avg Price0.035
ClosedJul 9
BUYNO+$189
Shares5,400.0
Total Traded$5,210.99
Avg Price0.965
ClosedJul 9
BUYNO$465
Shares662.7
Total Traded$464.58
Avg Price0.701
ClosedJul 9
BUYYES+$130
Shares180.5
Total Traded$50.53
Avg Price0.280
ClosedJul 9
BUYNO+$900
Shares12,805.6
Total Traded$11,905.20
Avg Price0.930
ClosedJul 9
BUYYES$511
Shares6,363.8
Total Traded$511.42
Avg Price0.080
ClosedJul 6

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$390

Win / Loss

14W / 6L

Win Rate

70.0%

Avg Return

+19.5%

15 of 20

#1Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Jul 10, 2026 @ 99.7¢
+$0
BUYNO+0.3%
#2Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 10, 2026 @ 98.6¢
+$1
BUYNO+1.4%
#3Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5
Jul 9, 2026 @ 36.0¢
+$178
BUYOVER+177.8%
#4Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 9, 2026 @ 5.5¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 9, 2026 @ 3.5¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.