Thalantyr
Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM
Wallet Verdict
Ahead of the Market
$33K net profit from $209K of volume, with a 41.5% win rate across 106 trades, a 43% skill score, and a 15.7% return on volume.
The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.
- Skill
- 43%
- Confidence
- 8.1%
Win Rate
41.5%
Trades
106
Net P&L
+$32.8K
Total Vol
$209.0K
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 106 resolved trades (Beta(38, 51))
Cumulative Realized P&L
106 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 106 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -53.5%
77 resolved positions
26 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (106)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 106
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
+$203,109
Win / Loss
12W / 8L
Win Rate
60.0%
Avg Return
+10155.4%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.