StephenCampos
Last updated Jul 14, 06:02 AM
Wallet Verdict
The Market Collected
$492 net loss from $21K of volume, with a 55.6% win rate across 9 trades, a 45% skill score, and a -2.3% return on volume.
Only 9 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.
- Skill
- 45%
- Confidence
- 34.3%
Win Rate
55.6%
Trades
9
Small Sample
Net P&L
−$492
Total Vol
$21.2K
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 9 resolved trades (Beta(8, 9))
Cumulative Realized P&L
9 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 9 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -50.0%
8 resolved positions
1 resolved position
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (9)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–9 of 9
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
+$112
Win / Loss
5W / 4L
Win Rate
55.6%
Avg Return
+12.4%
1–5 of 9
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 9 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.