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LUCKORSKILL
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Q96s3k...xpau

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sportsworld-cup-winner
Skilled

Wallet Verdict

High-Volume Winner

$2.9M net profit from $3.8M of volume, with a 56.3% win rate across 190 trades, a 59% skill score, and a 75.4% return on volume.

The results are substantial; only the repeatability of the edge remains under review.

Skill
59%
Confidence
97.1%
Share on X

Win Rate

56.3%

Trades

190

Net P&L

+$2.9M

Total Vol

$3.8M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 190 resolved trades (Beta(69, 48))

Cumulative Realized P&L

190 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 190 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -29.3%

Yes70W / 72L
49.3%

142 resolved positions

No33W / 9L
78.6%

42 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (190)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 190

Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
BUYYES+$176
Shares249,180.4
Total Traded$2,049.01
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 13
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$2.2M
Shares4,636,951.0
Total Traded$2,318,475.50
Avg Price0.500
ClosedJul 12
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
BUYYES+$209
Shares212,100.0
Total Traded$2,332.68
Avg Price0.011
ClosedJul 12
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
BUYYES+$96
Shares464,278.9
Total Traded$3,626.48
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 12
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$3.1K
Shares201,877.8
Total Traded$3,835.48
Avg Price0.019
ClosedJul 11
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
BUYYES+$192
Shares632,899.3
Total Traded$5,062.56
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 11
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
BUYYES+$857
Shares665,017.5
Total Traded$9,930.71
Avg Price0.015
ClosedJul 9
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
BUYYES+$814
Shares535,849.6
Total Traded$7,156.81
Avg Price0.013
ClosedJul 8
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$1.6K
Shares883,383.8
Total Traded$9,715.45
Avg Price0.011
ClosedJul 8
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$2.1K
Shares824,350.9
Total Traded$7,217.19
Avg Price0.009
ClosedJul 7

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$177,910

Win / Loss

19W / 1L

Win Rate

95.0%

Avg Return

+8895.5%

1–5 of 20

#1Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 0.8¢
+$12,061
BUYYES+12061.0%
#2Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 50.0¢
+$100
BUYNO+100.0%
#3Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 1.1¢
+$8,993
BUYYES+8992.6%
#4Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 0.8¢
+$12,702
BUYYES+12702.5%
#5Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Jul 11, 2026 @ 1.9¢
+$5,163
BUYYES+5163.4%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.