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Better-Man

Last updated Jul 18, 10:15 AM

Top activity:politicsdemocratic-presidential-nominee-2028
Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$24K net profit from $130K of volume, with a 90.0% win rate across 20 trades, a 65% skill score, and a 18.3% return on volume.

The record is promising, but the sample is still developing.

Skill
65%
Confidence
93.2%
Share on X

Win Rate

90.0%

Trades

20

Medium Sample

Net P&L

+$23.8K

Total Vol

$130.1K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 20 resolved trades (Beta(15, 8))

Cumulative Realized P&L

20 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 20 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Yes18W / 2L
90.0%

20 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (20)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 20

Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$90
Shares45,000.0
Total Traded$90.00
Avg Price0.002
ClosedJun 29
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES−$7
Shares69,848.9
Total Traded$545.66
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJun 15
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$726
Shares77,848.7
Total Traded$808.85
Avg Price0.010
ClosedMay 28
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$283
Shares69,848.9
Total Traded$545.66
Avg Price0.008
ClosedMay 13
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$17
Shares69,848.9
Total Traded$545.66
Avg Price0.008
ClosedMay 12
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$36
Shares69,848.9
Total Traded$545.66
Avg Price0.008
ClosedMay 4
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$683
Shares69,848.9
Total Traded$275.00
Avg Price0.004
ClosedApr 24
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$17.0K
Shares183,440.9
Total Traded$722.21
Avg Price0.004
ClosedApr 7
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$568
Shares69,848.9
Total Traded$275.00
Avg Price0.004
ClosedApr 4
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
BUYYES+$423
Shares69,848.9
Total Traded$275.00
Avg Price0.004
ClosedMar 19

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$401,628

Win / Loss

18W / 2L

Win Rate

90.0%

Avg Return

+20081.4%

1–5 of 20

#1Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jun 29, 2026 @ 0.2¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jun 15, 2026 @ 0.8¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
May 28, 2026 @ 1.0¢
+$9,525
BUYYES+9524.6%
#4Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
May 13, 2026 @ 0.8¢
+$12,701
BUYYES+12700.8%
#5Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
May 12, 2026 @ 0.8¢
+$12,701
BUYYES+12700.8%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.