debased
Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM
Wallet Verdict
The Market Collected
$1M net loss from $69.5M of volume, with a 32.0% win rate across 203 trades, a 33% skill score, and a -1.5% return on volume.
The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.
- Skill
- 33%
- Confidence
- 0%
Win Rate
32.0%
Trades
203
Net P&L
−$1.0M
Total Vol
$69.5M
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 203 resolved trades (Beta(63, 130))
Cumulative Realized P&L
203 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 203 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: +1.5%
110 resolved positions
93 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (203)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 203
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
+$11,959
Win / Loss
6W / 14L
Win Rate
30.0%
Avg Return
+598.0%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.