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ricardoclark

Last updated Jul 15, 01:02 AM

Top activity:sportsfifwc-arg-egy-2026-07-07
Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$3K net loss from $332K of volume, with a 62.5% win rate across 112 trades, a 63% skill score, and a -0.8% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
63%
Confidence
99.5%
Share on X

Win Rate

62.5%

Trades

112

Net P&L

−$2.8K

Total Vol

$332.5K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 112 resolved trades (Beta(57, 33))

Cumulative Realized P&L

112 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 112 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +0.5%

Yes19W / 11L
63.3%

30 resolved positions

No49W / 29L
62.8%

78 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (112)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 112

France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
BUYFRANCE−$3.9K
Shares6,657.0
Total Traded$3,910.99
Avg Price0.588
ClosedJul 14
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
BUYNO−$915
Shares6,155.6
Total Traded$3,754.90
Avg Price0.610
ClosedJul 13
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?
BUYNO−$0
Shares5,000.0
Total Traded$4,199.98
Avg Price0.840
ClosedJul 10
Will France win on 2026-07-09?
BUYNO+$150
Shares14,999.4
Total Traded$5,699.78
Avg Price0.380
ClosedJul 9
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$116
Shares482.9
Total Traded$367.02
Avg Price0.760
ClosedJul 8
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance
BUYCOLOMBIA−$114
Shares187.0
Total Traded$114.07
Avg Price0.610
ClosedJul 7
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?
BUYNO−$0
Shares0.1
Total Traded$0.08
Avg Price0.660
ClosedJul 7
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?
BUYNO+$130
Shares12,999.7
Total Traded$9,489.80
Avg Price0.730
ClosedJul 7
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?
BUYNO+$260
Shares25,999.7
Total Traded$23,919.73
Avg Price0.920
ClosedJul 7
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?
BUYNO+$130
Shares12,999.6
Total Traded$7,409.77
Avg Price0.570
ClosedJul 7

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$42

Win / Loss

13W / 7L

Win Rate

65.0%

Avg Return

+2.1%

1–5 of 20

#1France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
Jul 14, 2026 @ 58.8¢
$100
BUYFRANCE-100.0%
#2Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 61.0¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#3Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?
Jul 10, 2026 @ 84.0¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#4Will France win on 2026-07-09?
Jul 9, 2026 @ 38.0¢
+$163
BUYNO+163.2%
#5Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 8, 2026 @ 76.0¢
+$32
BUYNO+31.6%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.