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neurop...pany

Last updated Jul 23, 08:02 AM

Edge

Wallet Verdict

Low Hit Rate, Heavy Payoffs

$1K net profit from $3K of volume, with a 27.3% win rate across 11 trades, a 33% skill score, and a 41.6% return on volume.

Only 11 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
33%
Confidence
5.3%
Share on X

Win Rate

27.3%

Trades

11

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$1.1K

Total Vol

$2.6K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 11 resolved trades (Beta(7, 14))

Cumulative Realized P&L

11 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 11 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +30.0%

Yes3W / 7L
30.0%

10 resolved positions

No0W / 1L
0.0%

1 resolved position

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (11)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 11

BUYYES$30
Shares200.0
Total Traded$29.80
Avg Price0.149
ClosedJul 23
BUYYES$16
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$16.00
Avg Price0.016
ClosedJul 23
BUYYES+$286
Shares13,195.6
Total Traded$1,372.33
Avg Price0.104
ClosedJul 23
BUYYES$5
Shares100.0
Total Traded$5.40
Avg Price0.054
ClosedJul 23
BUYYES$11
Shares200.0
Total Traded$11.20
Avg Price0.056
ClosedJul 23
BUYYES$10
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$10.00
Avg Price0.010
ClosedJul 23
BUYYES$19
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$19.00
Avg Price0.019
ClosedJul 23
BUYYES+$874
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$126.00
Avg Price0.126
ClosedJul 20
BUYYES$8
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$8.00
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 2
BUYNO$12
Shares708.1
Total Traded$652.46
Avg Price0.921
ClosedMay 19

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$1,920

Win / Loss

3W / 8L

Win Rate

27.3%

Avg Return

+174.5%

15 of 11

#1Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 23, 2026 @ 14.9¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 23, 2026 @ 1.6¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 23, 2026 @ 10.4¢
+$862
BUYYES+861.5%
#4Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 23, 2026 @ 5.4¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 23, 2026 @ 5.6¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 11 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.