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flawfence

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sportsperu-presidential-election-winner
Skilled

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$450K net profit from $4.5M of volume, with a 58.7% win rate across 206 trades, a 58% skill score, and a 10.0% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
58%
Confidence
98.7%
Share on X

Win Rate

58.7%

Trades

206

Net P&L

+$450.3K

Total Vol

$4.5M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 206 resolved trades (Beta(114, 83))

Cumulative Realized P&L

206 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 206 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -9.6%

Yes22W / 16L
57.9%

38 resolved positions

No27W / 13L
67.5%

40 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (206)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 206

Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik
BUYALEXANDER BUBLIK−$16.5K
Shares50,000.0
Total Traded$16,500.00
Avg Price0.330
ClosedJul 13
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
BUYNO+$4.7K
Shares10,246.1
Total Traded$3,840.20
Avg Price0.375
ClosedJul 13
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
BUYMAX HOLLOWAY+$27.0K
Shares100,000.0
Total Traded$73,000.00
Avg Price0.730
ClosedJul 12
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev
BUYALEXANDER ZVEREV+$3.8K
Shares100,000.0
Total Traded$18,000.00
Avg Price0.180
ClosedJul 12
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev
BUYJANNIK SINNER+$24.0K
Shares99,999.9
Total Traded$75,999.93
Avg Price0.760
ClosedJul 12
Will England win on 2026-07-11?
BUYNO+$51.0K
Shares100,000.0
Total Traded$49,000.00
Avg Price0.490
ClosedJul 12
Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskova
BUYLINDA NOSKOVA+$4.5K
Shares50,000.0
Total Traded$20,500.00
Avg Price0.410
ClosedJul 11
Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5
BUYUNDER+$58.5K
Shares100,945.6
Total Traded$42,397.16
Avg Price0.420
ClosedJul 11
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
BUYNORWAY−$1.1K
Shares3,112.3
Total Traded$1,058.19
Avg Price0.340
ClosedJul 11
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?
BUYNO+$2.3K
Shares7,978.4
Total Traded$4,069.00
Avg Price0.510
ClosedJul 10

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$6,197

Win / Loss

14W / 6L

Win Rate

70.0%

Avg Return

+309.8%

1–5 of 20

#1Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik
Jul 13, 2026 @ 33.0¢
$100
BUYALEXANDER BUBLIK-100.0%
#2Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 37.5¢
+$167
BUYNO+166.8%
#3UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
Jul 12, 2026 @ 73.0¢
+$37
BUYMAX HOLLOWAY+37.0%
#4Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev
Jul 12, 2026 @ 18.0¢
+$456
BUYALEXANDER ZVEREV+455.6%
#5Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev
Jul 12, 2026 @ 76.0¢
+$32
BUYJANNIK SINNER+31.6%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.