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gandalf

Last updated Jul 18, 10:15 AM

Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$3K net profit from $13K of volume, with a 76.9% win rate across 13 trades, a 51% skill score, and a 24.2% return on volume.

Only 13 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
51%
Confidence
51.6%
Share on X

Win Rate

76.9%

Trades

13

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$3.2K

Total Vol

$13.1K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 13 resolved trades (Beta(7, 7))

Cumulative Realized P&L

13 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 13 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +90.9%

Yes10W / 1L
90.9%

11 resolved positions

No0W / 2L
0.0%

2 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (13)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 13

BUYYES$8
Shares10,000.0
Total Traded$78.12
Avg Price0.008
ClosedApr 28
BUYYES+$41
Shares10,000.0
Total Traded$69.29
Avg Price0.007
ClosedMar 18
BUYYES+$41
Shares10,000.0
Total Traded$69.29
Avg Price0.007
ClosedMar 8
BUYYES+$111
Shares10,000.0
Total Traded$69.29
Avg Price0.007
ClosedFeb 23
BUYYES+$131
Shares10,000.0
Total Traded$69.29
Avg Price0.007
ClosedNov 30
BUYYES+$1.6K
Shares10,000.0
Total Traded$69.29
Avg Price0.007
ClosedNov 5
BUYYES+$41
Shares10,000.0
Total Traded$69.29
Avg Price0.007
ClosedOct 21
BUYYES+$131
Shares10,000.0
Total Traded$69.29
Avg Price0.007
ClosedSep 13
BUYYES+$121
Shares10,000.0
Total Traded$69.29
Avg Price0.007
ClosedAug 16
BUYYES+$659
Shares10,000.0
Total Traded$69.29
Avg Price0.007
ClosedAug 10

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$143,021

Win / Loss

10W / 3L

Win Rate

76.9%

Avg Return

+11001.6%

15 of 13

#1Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Apr 28, 2026 @ 0.8¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Mar 18, 2026 @ 0.7¢
+$14,332
BUYYES+14332.1%
#3Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Mar 8, 2026 @ 0.7¢
+$14,332
BUYYES+14332.1%
#4Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Feb 23, 2026 @ 0.7¢
+$14,332
BUYYES+14332.1%
#5Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Nov 30, 2025 @ 0.7¢
+$14,332
BUYYES+14332.1%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 13 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.