0x21a2...9514
Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM
Wallet Verdict
The Market Collected
$60K net loss from $131K of volume, with a 41.9% win rate across 31 trades, a 43% skill score, and a -46.1% return on volume.
The record is promising, but the sample is still developing.
- Skill
- 43%
- Confidence
- 21.9%
Win Rate
41.9%
Trades
31
Medium Sample
Net P&L
−$60.3K
Total Vol
$130.8K
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 31 resolved trades (Beta(11, 15))
Cumulative Realized P&L
31 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 31 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -21.4%
14 resolved positions
2 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (31)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 31
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
$273
Win / Loss
9W / 11L
Win Rate
45.0%
Avg Return
-13.7%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.