rebotsliaf
Last updated Jul 15, 09:02 PM
Wallet Verdict
The Market Collected
$92K net loss from $735K of volume, with a 23.6% win rate across 208 trades, a 25% skill score, and a -12.6% return on volume.
The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.
- Skill
- 25%
- Confidence
- 0%
Win Rate
23.6%
Trades
208
Net P&L
−$92.3K
Total Vol
$735.1K
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 208 resolved trades (Beta(49, 147))
Cumulative Realized P&L
208 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 208 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -19.6%
72 resolved positions
64 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (208)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 208
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
+$649
Win / Loss
13W / 7L
Win Rate
65.0%
Avg Return
+32.5%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.