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rebotsliaf

Last updated Jul 15, 09:02 PM

Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$92K net loss from $735K of volume, with a 23.6% win rate across 208 trades, a 25% skill score, and a -12.6% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
25%
Confidence
0%
Share on X

Win Rate

23.6%

Trades

208

Net P&L

−$92.3K

Total Vol

$735.1K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 208 resolved trades (Beta(49, 147))

Cumulative Realized P&L

208 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 208 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -19.6%

Yes14W / 58L
19.4%

72 resolved positions

No25W / 39L
39.1%

64 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (208)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 208

BUYNO$14.6K
Shares92,069.1
Total Traded$71,905.99
Avg Price0.781
ClosedJul 15
BUYUNDER$286
Shares2,243.4
Total Traded$286.04
Avg Price0.127
ClosedJul 14
BUYNO+$4.8K
Shares7,038.1
Total Traded$2,226.11
Avg Price0.316
ClosedJul 14
BUYNO+$183
Shares1,406.5
Total Traded$1,223.69
Avg Price0.870
ClosedJul 14
BUYNO+$513
Shares33,308.4
Total Traded$32,675.47
Avg Price0.981
ClosedJul 14
BUYUNDER+$550
Shares918.2
Total Traded$367.83
Avg Price0.401
ClosedJul 14
BUYNO+$4.6K
Shares10,370.3
Total Traded$5,768.91
Avg Price0.556
ClosedJul 14
BUYFRANCE$3.2K
Shares6,111.5
Total Traded$3,201.09
Avg Price0.524
ClosedJul 14
BUYNO+$2.3K
Shares4,443.9
Total Traded$2,177.52
Avg Price0.490
ClosedJul 12
BUYOVER$41
Shares193.3
Total Traded$41.08
Avg Price0.212
ClosedJul 12

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$649

Win / Loss

13W / 7L

Win Rate

65.0%

Avg Return

+32.5%

15 of 20

#1Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 15, 2026 @ 78.1¢
$100
BUYNO-100.0%
#2France vs. Spain: O/U 1.5
Jul 14, 2026 @ 12.7¢
$100
BUYUNDER-100.0%
#3France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score
Jul 14, 2026 @ 31.6¢
+$216
BUYNO+216.2%
#4Mikel Merino: 1+ goals
Jul 14, 2026 @ 87.0¢
+$15
BUYNO+14.9%
#5Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 98.1¢
+$2
BUYNO+1.9%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.