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walnutpeanut

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Lucky

Wallet Verdict

Low Hit Rate, Heavy Payoffs

$12K net profit from $61K of volume, with a 29.2% win rate across 89 trades, a 29% skill score, and a 18.9% return on volume.

Profit depends more on payoff size than win frequency, so drawdowns may be uneven.

Skill
29%
Confidence
0%
Share on X

Win Rate

29.2%

Trades

89

Net P&L

+$11.6K

Total Vol

$61.2K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 89 resolved trades (Beta(25, 62))

Cumulative Realized P&L

89 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 89 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -39.9%

Yes12W / 53L
18.5%

65 resolved positions

No14W / 10L
58.3%

24 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (89)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 89

BUYYES+$167
Shares253.0
Total Traded$86.01
Avg Price0.340
ClosedJul 6
BUYYES+$277
Shares469.9
Total Traded$193.04
Avg Price0.411
ClosedJul 4
BUYYES$184
Shares999.0
Total Traded$425.62
Avg Price0.426
ClosedJul 1
BUYYES$5
Shares6,115.0
Total Traded$12.23
Avg Price0.002
ClosedJun 30
BUYYES$1.3K
Shares9,700.8
Total Traded$1,275.24
Avg Price0.131
ClosedJun 30
BUYYES$333
Shares333,497.1
Total Traded$4,668.63
Avg Price0.014
ClosedJun 30
BUYNO$288
Shares1,255.1
Total Traded$288.03
Avg Price0.229
ClosedJun 30
BUYYES$758
Shares758,254.0
Total Traded$3,791.27
Avg Price0.005
ClosedJun 30
BUYYES$5
Shares462.1
Total Traded$46.21
Avg Price0.100
ClosedJun 30
BUYYES$407
Shares4,523.3
Total Traded$58.80
Avg Price0.013
ClosedJun 29

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$1,462

Win / Loss

2W / 18L

Win Rate

10.0%

Avg Return

-73.1%

15 of 20

#1Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 6, 2026 @ 34.0¢
+$194
BUYYES+194.1%
#2Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
Jul 4, 2026 @ 41.1¢
+$143
BUYYES+143.4%
#3Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
Jul 1, 2026 @ 42.6¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jun 30, 2026 @ 0.2¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Jun 30, 2026 @ 13.1¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.