walnutpeanut
Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM
Wallet Verdict
Low Hit Rate, Heavy Payoffs
$12K net profit from $61K of volume, with a 29.2% win rate across 89 trades, a 29% skill score, and a 18.9% return on volume.
Profit depends more on payoff size than win frequency, so drawdowns may be uneven.
- Skill
- 29%
- Confidence
- 0%
Win Rate
29.2%
Trades
89
Net P&L
+$11.6K
Total Vol
$61.2K
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 89 resolved trades (Beta(25, 62))
Cumulative Realized P&L
89 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 89 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -39.9%
65 resolved positions
24 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (89)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 89
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
$1,462
Win / Loss
2W / 18L
Win Rate
10.0%
Avg Return
-73.1%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.