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Gl4d

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sportsmicrostrategy-sell-any-bitcoin-in-2025
Skilled

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$8K net profit from $236K of volume, with a 63.7% win rate across 215 trades, a 63% skill score, and a 3.3% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
63%
Confidence
>99.9%
Share on X

Win Rate

63.7%

Trades

215

Net P&L

+$7.8K

Total Vol

$236.0K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 215 resolved trades (Beta(126, 74))

Cumulative Realized P&L

215 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 215 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -9.9%

Yes67W / 30L
69.1%

97 resolved positions

No45W / 12L
78.9%

57 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

1–1

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
BUYYESExpires Dec 31
Shares300.0
Total Traded$198.00
Avg Price0.660
Live Price13.5¢

Resolved Trades (215)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 215

Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$193
Shares2,713.3
Total Traded$203.44
Avg Price0.075
ClosedJul 13
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 12, 2026?
BUYYES+$4
Shares175.0
Total Traded$171.40
Avg Price0.979
ClosedJul 13
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)
BUYBENOÎT SAINT DENIS−$550
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$549.99
Avg Price0.550
ClosedJul 12
UFC 329: Wang Cong vs. Tracy Cortez (Women's Flyweight, Early Prelims)
BUYTRACY CORTEZ−$376
Shares800.0
Total Traded$376.00
Avg Price0.470
ClosedJul 12
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
BUYNO+$134
Shares800.0
Total Traded$665.59
Avg Price0.832
ClosedJul 12
UFC 329: Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight, Prelims)
BUYGABLE STEVESON+$96
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$904.00
Avg Price0.904
ClosedJul 12
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES+$199
Shares500.0
Total Traded$135.00
Avg Price0.270
ClosedJul 12
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
BUYNO+$52
Shares1,200.0
Total Traded$1,148.39
Avg Price0.957
ClosedJul 12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
BUYNO+$72
Shares900.0
Total Traded$774.00
Avg Price0.860
ClosedJul 11
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
BUYNO+$35
Shares500.0
Total Traded$421.50
Avg Price0.843
ClosedJul 11

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

$213

Win / Loss

13W / 7L

Win Rate

65.0%

Avg Return

-10.6%

1–5 of 20

#1Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 7.5¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 12, 2026?
Jul 13, 2026 @ 97.9¢
+$2
BUYYES+2.1%
#3UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)
Jul 12, 2026 @ 55.0¢
$100
BUYBENOÎT SAINT DENIS-100.0%
#4UFC 329: Wang Cong vs. Tracy Cortez (Women's Flyweight, Early Prelims)
Jul 12, 2026 @ 47.0¢
$100
BUYTRACY CORTEZ-100.0%
#5Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 83.2¢
+$20
BUYNO+20.2%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.