smoltrader
Last updated Jul 24, 11:03 AM
Wallet Verdict
Ahead of the Market
$127K net profit from $133K of volume, with a 47.5% win rate across 40 trades, a 45% skill score, and a 95.7% return on volume.
The record is promising, but the sample is still developing.
- Skill
- 45%
- Confidence
- 27.1%
Win Rate
47.5%
Trades
40
Medium Sample
Net P&L
+$127.1K
Total Vol
$132.8K
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 40 resolved trades (Beta(19, 23))
Cumulative Realized P&L
Most activity concentrated recently — trend may not reflect long-term performance.
40 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 40 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -55.3%
38 resolved positions
2 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (40)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 40
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
+$151,810
Win / Loss
13W / 7L
Win Rate
65.0%
Avg Return
+7590.5%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.