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shuanyang

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sportsfifwc-ger-civ-2026-06-20
Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$74K net profit from $1.2M of volume, with a 55.3% win rate across 152 trades, a 53% skill score, and a 6.3% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
53%
Confidence
75.9%
Share on X

Win Rate

55.3%

Trades

152

Net P&L

+$74.4K

Total Vol

$1.2M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 152 resolved trades (Beta(62, 54))

Cumulative Realized P&L

152 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 152 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -22.1%

Yes33W / 40L
45.2%

73 resolved positions

No35W / 17L
67.3%

52 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (152)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 152

Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
BUYENGLAND+$9.9K
Shares39,999.9
Total Traded$25,999.93
Avg Price0.650
ClosedJul 12
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
BUYYES−$4.9K
Shares7,000.0
Total Traded$4,922.49
Avg Price0.703
ClosedJul 12
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance
BUYARGENTINA−$2.7K
Shares51,999.9
Total Traded$43,529.38
Avg Price0.837
ClosedJul 12
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance
BUYSPAIN+$10.0K
Shares70,000.0
Total Traded$51,649.56
Avg Price0.738
ClosedJul 10
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance
BUYFRANCE+$15.8K
Shares69,999.7
Total Traded$54,149.74
Avg Price0.774
ClosedJul 9
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance
BUYARGENTINA+$7.5K
Shares49,999.7
Total Traded$42,499.71
Avg Price0.850
ClosedJul 7
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance
BUYUNITED STATES−$3.0K
Shares6,499.9
Total Traded$3,379.92
Avg Price0.520
ClosedJul 7
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance
BUYSWITZERLAND+$27.2K
Shares45,999.4
Total Traded$18,818.90
Avg Price0.409
ClosedJul 7
Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw?
BUYYES−$140
Shares2,000.0
Total Traded$660.00
Avg Price0.330
ClosedJul 6
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?
BUYYES−$3.3K
Shares15,073.9
Total Traded$4,668.17
Avg Price0.310
ClosedJul 6

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$365

Win / Loss

11W / 9L

Win Rate

55.0%

Avg Return

+18.3%

1–5 of 20

#1Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
Jul 12, 2026 @ 65.0¢
+$54
BUYENGLAND+53.8%
#2Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 70.3¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance
Jul 12, 2026 @ 83.7¢
$100
BUYARGENTINA-100.0%
#4Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance
Jul 10, 2026 @ 73.8¢
+$36
BUYSPAIN+35.5%
#5France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance
Jul 9, 2026 @ 77.4¢
+$29
BUYFRANCE+29.3%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.