alihanyer

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:crypto what-price-will-wti-hit-in-april-2026

Inconclusive

Wallet Verdict

Wins Often, Loses Bigger

$11K net loss from $588K of volume, with a 67.8% win rate across 202 trades, a 66% skill score, and a -1.9% return on volume.

Frequent wins are being outweighed by entry prices, position sizing, or larger losses.

Skill: 66%
Confidence: >99.9%

Share on X

Win Rate

67.8%

Trades

202

Net P&L

−$11.3K

Total Vol

$588.4K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 202 resolved trades (Beta(101, 52))

Cumulative Realized P&L

202 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 202 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -13.9%

Yes50W / 27L

64.9%

77 resolved positions

No78W / 21L

78.8%

99 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (202)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 202

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUYNO	4,471.4	$4,121.38	0.922	+$282	Jul 7
Will Australia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUYNO	2,000.0	$1,942.00	0.971	+$58	Jul 3
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUYNO	2,500.0	$2,450.00	0.980	+$50	Jul 2
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	BUYNO	2,271.6	$2,139.78	0.942	+$282	Jul 1
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?	BUYNO	4,572.5	$4,357.91	0.953	+$297	Jul 1
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?	BUYNO	54.8	$47.09	0.860	+$8	Jul 1
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	BUYNO	8,634.4	$7,550.67	0.874	+$1.0K	Jul 1
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?	BUYNO	408.0	$175.21	0.429	+$68	Jun 30
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June?	BUYNO	285.7	$245.71	0.860	+$40	Jun 30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June?	BUYNO	556.3	$478.41	0.860	+$78	Jun 30

Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

BUYNO+$282

Shares4,471.4

Total Traded$4,121.38

Avg Price0.922

ClosedJul 7

Will Australia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

BUYNO+$58

Shares2,000.0

Total Traded$1,942.00

Avg Price0.971

ClosedJul 3

Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

BUYNO+$50

Shares2,500.0

Total Traded$2,450.00

Avg Price0.980

ClosedJul 2

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?

BUYNO+$282

Shares2,271.6

Total Traded$2,139.78

Avg Price0.942

ClosedJul 1

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?

BUYNO+$297

Shares4,572.5

Total Traded$4,357.91

Avg Price0.953

ClosedJul 1

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?

BUYNO+$8

Shares54.8

Total Traded$47.09

Avg Price0.860

ClosedJul 1

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?

BUYNO+$1.0K

Shares8,634.4

Total Traded$7,550.67

Avg Price0.874

ClosedJul 1

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?

BUYNO+$68

Shares408.0

Total Traded$175.21

Avg Price0.429

ClosedJun 30

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June?

BUYNO+$40

Shares285.7

Total Traded$245.71

Avg Price0.860

ClosedJun 30

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June?

BUYNO+$78

Shares556.3

Total Traded$478.41

Avg Price0.860

ClosedJun 30

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

+$77

Win / Loss

14W / 6L

Win Rate

70.0%

Avg Return

+3.9%

1–5 of 20

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Jul 7, 2026 @ 92.2¢BUYNO108.592.2¢$100+$8+8.5%

2Will Australia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Jul 3, 2026 @ 97.1¢BUYNO103.097.1¢$100+$3+3.0%

3Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Jul 2, 2026 @ 98.0¢BUYNO102.098.0¢$100+$2+2.0%

4Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?Jul 1, 2026 @ 94.2¢BUYNO106.294.2¢$100+$6+6.2%

5Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?Jul 1, 2026 @ 95.3¢BUYNO104.995.3¢$100+$5+4.9%

#1Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Jul 7, 2026 @ 92.2¢

+$8

BUYNO+8.5%

#2Will Australia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Jul 3, 2026 @ 97.1¢

+$3

BUYNO+3.0%

#3Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Jul 2, 2026 @ 98.0¢

+$2

BUYNO+2.0%

#4Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?

Jul 1, 2026 @ 94.2¢

+$6

BUYNO+6.2%

#5Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?

Jul 1, 2026 @ 95.3¢

+$5

BUYNO+4.9%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.