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rocroi

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:sportsenglish-premier-league-winner
Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$3K net profit from $410K of volume, with a 61.7% win rate across 60 trades, a 59% skill score, and a 0.7% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
59%
Confidence
89.8%
Share on X

Win Rate

61.7%

Trades

60

Net P&L

+$2.8K

Total Vol

$409.9K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 60 resolved trades (Beta(27, 19))

Cumulative Realized P&L

60 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 60 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -10.0%

Yes10W / 10L
50.0%

20 resolved positions

No6W / 4L
60.0%

10 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (60)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 60

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYNO+$105
Shares3,000.0
Total Traded$2,895.00
Avg Price0.965
ClosedJul 12
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
BUYYES+$470
Shares4,200.0
Total Traded$848.98
Avg Price0.202
ClosedJul 6
Spread: Spain (-1.5)
BUYAUSTRIA−$33.3K
Shares64,774.7
Total Traded$33,259.78
Avg Price0.513
ClosedJul 2
Spread: United States (-1.5)
BUYBOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA−$46.8K
Shares90,000.0
Total Traded$46,800.00
Avg Price0.520
ClosedJul 2
Spread: Germany (-1.5)
BUYPARAGUAY+$38.4K
Shares79,999.7
Total Traded$41,599.86
Avg Price0.520
ClosedJun 29
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5)
BUYCURAÇAO+$44.0K
Shares104,600.0
Total Traded$60,567.88
Avg Price0.579
ClosedJun 25
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)
BUYQATAR−$55.8K
Shares97,000.0
Total Traded$55,789.94
Avg Price0.575
ClosedJun 24
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
BUYYES+$6.4K
Shares10,000.0
Total Traded$3,567.48
Avg Price0.357
ClosedJun 14
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?
BUYYES−$50
Shares3,019.6
Total Traded$49.86
Avg Price0.017
ClosedJun 8
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League?
BUYYES−$2.2K
Shares22,500.0
Total Traded$2,249.75
Avg Price0.100
ClosedMay 31

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$343

Win / Loss

12W / 8L

Win Rate

60.0%

Avg Return

+17.1%

1–5 of 20

#1Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 96.5¢
+$4
BUYNO+3.6%
#2Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Jul 6, 2026 @ 20.2¢
+$395
BUYYES+394.7%
#3Spread: Spain (-1.5)
Jul 2, 2026 @ 51.3¢
$100
BUYAUSTRIA-100.0%
#4Spread: United States (-1.5)
Jul 2, 2026 @ 52.0¢
$100
BUYBOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA-100.0%
#5Spread: Germany (-1.5)
Jun 29, 2026 @ 52.0¢
+$92
BUYPARAGUAY+92.3%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.