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Ferwhere

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:politicsus-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by
Lucky

Wallet Verdict

Low Hit Rate, Heavy Payoffs

$237K net profit from $209K of volume, with a 12.7% win rate across 126 trades, a 15% skill score, and a 113.2% return on volume.

Profit depends more on payoff size than win frequency, so drawdowns may be uneven.

Skill
15%
Confidence
0%
Share on X

Win Rate

12.7%

Trades

126

Net P&L

+$236.5K

Total Vol

$209.0K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 126 resolved trades (Beta(18, 99))

Cumulative Realized P&L

126 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 126 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +11.8%

Yes12W / 90L
11.8%

102 resolved positions

No0W / 9L
0.0%

9 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (126)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 126

Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
BUYENGLAND+$1.5K
Shares4,054.3
Total Traded$2,499.99
Avg Price0.617
ClosedJul 12
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
BUYCONOR MCGREGOR−$1.0K
Shares3,551.7
Total Traded$1,030.00
Avg Price0.290
ClosedJul 12
Will England win on 2026-07-11?
BUYYES−$100
Shares500.0
Total Traded$100.00
Avg Price0.200
ClosedJul 11
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
BUYYES−$4.6K
Shares296,340.7
Total Traded$10,175.15
Avg Price0.034
ClosedJul 10
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance
BUYUNITED STATES−$1.5K
Shares4,721.2
Total Traded$1,463.57
Avg Price0.310
ClosedJul 7
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance
BUYMEXICO−$500
Shares1,041.7
Total Traded$500.00
Avg Price0.480
ClosedJul 6
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Spain?
BUYYES−$130
Shares1,083.3
Total Traded$130.00
Avg Price0.120
ClosedJul 6
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance
BUYPORTUGAL−$1.5K
Shares3,897.4
Total Traded$1,481.00
Avg Price0.380
ClosedJul 6
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Spain?
BUYYES−$160
Shares996.9
Total Traded$159.51
Avg Price0.160
ClosedJul 6
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?
BUYYES−$300
Shares1,250.0
Total Traded$300.00
Avg Price0.240
ClosedJul 6

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$415

Win / Loss

4W / 16L

Win Rate

20.0%

Avg Return

+20.7%

1–5 of 20

#1Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
Jul 12, 2026 @ 61.7¢
+$62
BUYENGLAND+62.2%
#2UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
Jul 12, 2026 @ 29.0¢
$100
BUYCONOR MCGREGOR-100.0%
#3Will England win on 2026-07-11?
Jul 11, 2026 @ 20.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Jul 10, 2026 @ 3.4¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance
Jul 7, 2026 @ 31.0¢
$100
BUYUNITED STATES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.