Bertapotamous

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:politics democratic-presidential-nominee-2028

Skilled

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$78K net profit from $2.3M of volume, with a 68.3% win rate across 202 trades, a 66% skill score, and a 3.3% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill: 66%
Confidence: >99.9%

Share on X

Win Rate

68.3%

Trades

202

Net P&L

+$77.8K

Total Vol

$2.3M

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 202 resolved trades (Beta(125, 66))

Cumulative Realized P&L

202 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 202 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: -24.6%

Yes58W / 41L

58.6%

99 resolved positions

No79W / 16L

83.2%

95 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (202)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 202

Market	Position	Shares	Total Traded	Avg Price	P&L	Closed
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 6?	BUYNO	1,061.0	$8.97	0.008	−$9	Jul 12
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	BUYCONOR MCGREGOR	160,000.0	$55,999.99	0.350	−$11.2K	Jul 12
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUYNO	2,587.7	$2,574.74	0.995	+$13	Jul 11
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 9, 2026?	BUYNO	707.5	$589.35	0.833	+$118	Jul 11
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUYYES	193,407.0	$47,393.80	0.245	+$143.0K	Jul 10
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 9?	BUYYES	58.2	$57.43	0.987	+$1	Jul 10
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by July 31, 2026?	BUYYES	1,524.4	$1,522.31	0.999	+$2	Jul 9
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	BUYMOROCCO	10,650.2	$2,396.30	0.225	−$2.4K	Jul 9
Will Vance say "Election" during Milwaukee remarks?	BUYYES	179.0	$178.82	0.999	+$0	Jul 8
Will Vance say "Wisconsin" 5+ times during Milwaukee remarks?	BUYYES	179.4	$179.18	0.999	+$0	Jul 8

Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 6?

BUYNO−$9

Shares1,061.0

Total Traded$8.97

Avg Price0.008

ClosedJul 12

UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)

BUYCONOR MCGREGOR−$11.2K

Shares160,000.0

Total Traded$55,999.99

Avg Price0.350

ClosedJul 12

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

BUYNO+$13

Shares2,587.7

Total Traded$2,574.74

Avg Price0.995

ClosedJul 11

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 9, 2026?

BUYNO+$118

Shares707.5

Total Traded$589.35

Avg Price0.833

ClosedJul 11

Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

BUYYES+$143.0K

Shares193,407.0

Total Traded$47,393.80

Avg Price0.245

ClosedJul 10

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 9?

BUYYES+$1

Shares58.2

Total Traded$57.43

Avg Price0.987

ClosedJul 10

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by July 31, 2026?

BUYYES+$2

Shares1,524.4

Total Traded$1,522.31

Avg Price0.999

ClosedJul 9

France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance

BUYMOROCCO−$2.4K

Shares10,650.2

Total Traded$2,396.30

Avg Price0.225

ClosedJul 9

Will Vance say "Election" during Milwaukee remarks?

BUYYES+$0

Shares179.0

Total Traded$178.82

Avg Price0.999

ClosedJul 8

Will Vance say "Wisconsin" 5+ times during Milwaukee remarks?

BUYYES+$0

Shares179.4

Total Traded$179.18

Avg Price0.999

ClosedJul 8

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

Bet size

Total P&L

+$1,420

Win / Loss

14W / 6L

Win Rate

70.0%

Avg Return

+71.0%

1–5 of 20

#MarketSideSharesAvg PriceTotal TradedP&LReturn

1Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 6?Jul 12, 2026 @ 0.8¢BUYNO11,824.50.8¢$100$100-100.0%

2UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)Jul 12, 2026 @ 35.0¢BUYCONOR MCGREGOR285.735.0¢$100$100-100.0%

3Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Jul 11, 2026 @ 99.5¢BUYNO100.599.5¢$100+$1+0.5%

4Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 9, 2026?Jul 11, 2026 @ 83.3¢BUYNO120.183.3¢$100+$20+20.1%

5Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Jul 10, 2026 @ 24.5¢BUYYES408.124.5¢$100+$308+308.1%

#1Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 6?

Jul 12, 2026 @ 0.8¢

$100

BUYNO-100.0%

#2UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)

Jul 12, 2026 @ 35.0¢

$100

BUYCONOR MCGREGOR-100.0%

#3Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Jul 11, 2026 @ 99.5¢

+$1

BUYNO+0.5%

#4Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 9, 2026?

Jul 11, 2026 @ 83.3¢

+$20

BUYNO+20.1%

#5Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

Jul 10, 2026 @ 24.5¢

+$308

BUYYES+308.1%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.