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NSGnev...ling

Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM

Top activity:politicskhamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-january-31
Lucky

Wallet Verdict

The Market Collected

$20K net loss from $39K of volume, with a 8.0% win rate across 25 trades, a 22% skill score, and a -51.7% return on volume.

The record is promising, but the sample is still developing.

Skill
22%
Confidence
0.2%
Share on X

Win Rate

8.0%

Trades

25

Medium Sample

Net P&L

−$20.2K

Total Vol

$39.1K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 25 resolved trades (Beta(6, 20))

Cumulative Realized P&L

25 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 25 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Yes2W / 23L
8.0%

25 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

0–0

No active positions

Resolved Trades (25)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

1–10 of 25

Will Tim Walz resign by January 31?
BUYYES−$780
Shares23,820.3
Total Traded$779.97
Avg Price0.033
ClosedJun 30
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half
BUYYES−$50
Shares312.5
Total Traded$50.00
Avg Price0.160
ClosedJun 19
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$109
Shares18,181.8
Total Traded$199.98
Avg Price0.011
ClosedJun 19
Scotland leading at halftime?
BUYYES−$50
Shares333.3
Total Traded$50.00
Avg Price0.150
ClosedJun 19
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$80
Shares20,000.0
Total Traded$200.00
Avg Price0.010
ClosedJun 19
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$38
Shares19,230.8
Total Traded$499.98
Avg Price0.026
ClosedJun 19
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$80
Shares20,000.0
Total Traded$400.00
Avg Price0.020
ClosedJun 19
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES−$20
Shares20,000.0
Total Traded$800.00
Avg Price0.040
ClosedJun 19
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYES+$0
Shares13,333.3
Total Traded$199.99
Avg Price0.015
ClosedJun 19
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?
BUYYES+$4.6K
Shares5,078.9
Total Traded$500.00
Avg Price0.098
ClosedJun 9

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$5,683

Win / Loss

2W / 18L

Win Rate

10.0%

Avg Return

+284.1%

1–5 of 20

#1Will Tim Walz resign by January 31?
Jun 30, 2026 @ 3.3¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#2Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half
Jun 19, 2026 @ 16.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#3Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jun 19, 2026 @ 1.1¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#4Scotland leading at halftime?
Jun 19, 2026 @ 15.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jun 19, 2026 @ 1.0¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.