misterluna
Last updated Jul 13, 04:02 AM
Wallet Verdict
Ahead of the Market
$63K net profit from $620K of volume, with a 64.0% win rate across 75 trades, a 59% skill score, and a 10.1% return on volume.
The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.
- Skill
- 59%
- Confidence
- 90%
Win Rate
64.0%
Trades
75
Net P&L
+$62.9K
Total Vol
$620.4K
Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)
Based on 75 resolved trades (Beta(33, 23))
Cumulative Realized P&L
75 resolved positions
* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.
Win Rate Trend
Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 75 resolved trades total
Win Rate by Side
Gap: -45.5%
46 resolved positions
22 resolved positions
Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.
Active Positions
Open exposure and current market positions.
0–0
Resolved Trades (75)
Historical outcomes and realized performance.
1–10 of 75
Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?
Total P&L
+$23,199
Win / Loss
15W / 5L
Win Rate
75.0%
Avg Return
+1159.9%
1–5 of 20
Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.