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Last updated Jul 18, 10:15 AM

Edge

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$80 net profit from $4K of volume, with a 69.2% win rate across 13 trades, a 57% skill score, and a 2.1% return on volume.

Only 13 resolved trades are available, so repeatability remains highly uncertain.

Skill
57%
Confidence
74.2%
Share on X

Win Rate

69.2%

Trades

13

Small Sample

Net P&L

+$80

Total Vol

$3.8K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 13 resolved trades (Beta(12, 9))

Cumulative Realized P&L

13 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 13 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Yes9W / 4L
69.2%

13 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (13)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 13

BUYYES+$15
Shares59,040.7
Total Traded$413.28
Avg Price0.007
ClosedJul 15
BUYYES+$10
Shares36,737.3
Total Traded$220.42
Avg Price0.006
ClosedJul 14
BUYYES+$0
Shares26,497.7
Total Traded$157.37
Avg Price0.006
ClosedJul 14
BUYYES$1
Shares6,298.0
Total Traded$37.79
Avg Price0.006
ClosedJul 14
BUYYES$49
Shares32,999.9
Total Traded$198.00
Avg Price0.006
ClosedJul 14
BUYYES+$10
Shares37,789.0
Total Traded$340.10
Avg Price0.009
ClosedJul 14
BUYYES+$17
Shares33,209.9
Total Traded$265.68
Avg Price0.008
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES+$33
Shares38,684.9
Total Traded$425.49
Avg Price0.011
ClosedJul 13
BUYYES+$44
Shares41,492.4
Total Traded$497.87
Avg Price0.012
ClosedJun 24
BUYYES+$28
Shares69,999.7
Total Traded$475.09
Avg Price0.007
ClosedJun 10

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$110,594

Win / Loss

9W / 4L

Win Rate

69.2%

Avg Return

+8507.3%

15 of 13

#1Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 15, 2026 @ 0.7¢
+$14,186
BUYYES+14185.7%
#2Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 0.6¢
+$16,567
BUYYES+16566.7%
#3Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 0.6¢
+$16,738
BUYYES+16737.9%
#4Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 0.6¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%
#5Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Jul 14, 2026 @ 0.6¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 13 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.