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LEONID...1983

Last updated Jul 15, 10:02 PM

Skilled

Wallet Verdict

Ahead of the Market

$5K net profit from $983K of volume, with a 61.3% win rate across 199 trades, a 60% skill score, and a 0.6% return on volume.

The sample is established enough for the combined performance signals to carry meaningful weight.

Skill
60%
Confidence
99.7%
Share on X

Win Rate

61.3%

Trades

199

Net P&L

+$5.4K

Total Vol

$982.7K

Win Rate Distribution (Posterior)

Based on 199 resolved trades (Beta(114, 76))

Cumulative Realized P&L

199 resolved positions

* Resolved P&L only. Polymarket includes active-position value, so results may differ.

Win Rate Trend

Rolling 25-trade win rate window · 199 resolved trades total

Win Rate by Side

Gap: +3.1%

Yes23W / 7L
76.7%

30 resolved positions

No25W / 9L
73.5%

34 resolved positions

Win rate = wins ÷ decided positions. Bars compare 50% baseline.

Active Positions

Open exposure and current market positions.

00

No active positions

Resolved Trades (199)

Historical outcomes and realized performance.

110 of 199

BUYARGENTINA+$266
Shares315,447.3
Total Traded$145,105.77
Avg Price0.460
ClosedJul 15
BUYFRANCE$414
Shares225,110.3
Total Traded$126,624.52
Avg Price0.563
ClosedJul 14
BUYENGLAND+$214
Shares85,495.1
Total Traded$45,953.61
Avg Price0.538
ClosedJul 14
BUYSPAIN+$820
Shares327,789.8
Total Traded$140,949.27
Avg Price0.430
ClosedJul 14
BUYYES$1.1K
Shares463,798.1
Total Traded$96,843.35
Avg Price0.209
ClosedJul 12
BUYNO+$473
Shares123,728.5
Total Traded$77,453.92
Avg Price0.626
ClosedJul 11
BUYYES$56
Shares87,313.9
Total Traded$12,637.46
Avg Price0.145
ClosedJul 11
BUYNORWAY+$50
Shares14,000.0
Total Traded$4,445.00
Avg Price0.318
ClosedJul 11
BUYKAROLINA MUCHOVA+$398
Shares1,000.0
Total Traded$290.00
Avg Price0.290
ClosedJul 11
BUYMARTA KOSTYUK$415
Shares1,000.7
Total Traded$415.26
Avg Price0.415
ClosedJul 10

Copy SimulationHypotheticalWhat if you copied these trades?

$

Total P&L

+$540

Win / Loss

11W / 9L

Win Rate

55.0%

Avg Return

+27.0%

15 of 20

#1England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
Jul 15, 2026 @ 46.0¢
+$117
BUYARGENTINA+117.4%
#2France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
Jul 14, 2026 @ 56.3¢
$100
BUYFRANCE-100.0%
#3England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
Jul 14, 2026 @ 53.8¢
+$86
BUYENGLAND+86.0%
#4France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
Jul 14, 2026 @ 43.0¢
+$133
BUYSPAIN+132.6%
#5Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Jul 12, 2026 @ 20.9¢
$100
BUYYES-100.0%

Simulated at the trader's average entry price and entry time with a $100 stake on each of the last 20 resolved trades. Hypothetical. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology: Bayesian scores and P&L are evaluated on a maximum of the 200 most recent closed positions per wallet due to exchange API limitations.